[burnerRhodov3]

Anthropic deal is 1.25B a month for half a gigawatt, with it rising up to 1g.(total deal size 2-2.5B a month) add on this google $900m a month and you get 3.4B a month. Starship cost is probably something like (y = (400m - 20m(0.85)^t + 20m, where t is times starship is launched. At 30 launches, they are close to their target of $20m. A single nvidia NVL72 rack's peak performance is around 135w so 1gw (1,000,000 kW /135 kW per rack‚ is 7,407. each rack weighs around 1.47 metric tons. so you have 7407/1.47t = 10,888.29t+ 15,243.606 (plus 15,243.606 is for an additional 140% for foldable radiator and solar panels... so 26,131.9t to orbit for 1gw of compute. each starship can do 100T, so 26,131.9t/100 gives us 261.32 starships. given the cost curve earlier: Total Cost = ∫₀²⁶¹ (380 0.85ᵗ + 20) dt

  Total Cost = F(261) - F(0) 
             ≈ 5,220.00 - (-2,338.19) 
             ≈ 7,558.19

So $7.5B for the required tonnage to space. 3 million to $3.5 for each rack is 7407 * 3.5m = 25,924.5b. + 7,558.19 is 33b. if we can rent 1gw for $2-3b a month we get buyback in 13ish months? Literally best business model ever. if they last 5 years, each gw is worth $160-180B for the cost of $33B.

Holy F*ck.... SpaceX is going to be the most valuable company of all time by a long shot.

[rmeara]

The math currently works given a lot of rosy assumptions about xAI's ability to develop Starship + orbital cooling but no way it works in 5 years.

There's a huge GPU shortage right now, so prices are inflated. In the long term what matters is that

cost of launch + space hardware < cost of electricity

Electricity is only about 10-15% of the cost of running a terrestrial AI datacenter, so that doesn't give them a lot of room to undercut their terrestrial competitors

[burnerRhodov3]

What terrestial competitors? It is illegal to build datacenters in the states without getting sued to death.

10-15% opex over 5 years, gives you what?