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by overgard 2 days ago
Except inference has been getting more expensive, not less
4 comments

Inference has been going down in price on a cost/intelligence basis. If you don't need the smartest model, there are plenty of good Chinese models that are dirt cheap.
Doesn't that sort-of make one of Zitron's core points?

"Chinese models are dirt cheap" isn't going to do anything good for the return the investments in OpenAI and Anthropic demand.

It supports his point that they're planning to massively overbuild compute, which was already well supported by the financials. A lot of that planned compute buildout can be walked back though, and the technology is unquestionably useful in moderation, so it's not the catastrophe he suggests, and his hyperbole is part of what makes me dislike him even if there are elements of his foundational argument I agree with.
Aren't these Chinese models also heavily subsidized at the moment ? They are running off govt money which also has a cut-off date by 2028-30.
It’s been steadily getting cheaper per token per problems solved even if you don’t define ‘unsolvable => infinity token cost’
American AI companies are charging more, that doesnt mean inference isnt getting cheaper. idk why this is so hard for people to understand.
check out DeepSeek V4 Pro .... this is where the threat vector comes from IMHO. If anything is triggering a rush to IPO imho it's seeing these cheap / free models on the horizon that are "good enough" for 80% of the core use case supporting their valuation.