I think this is a very big issue. If SpaceX is very successful, will he pay out dividends, or will he spend everything on a mission to mars at a massive loss or something like that?
If SpaceX is very successful he will spend everything on a mission to mars. He's pretty up front about this. If it costs a lot and the company runs at a loss then it costs a lot and the company runs at a loss. Read the S-1
> We believe that our current space efforts will catalyze transformative breakthroughs that could reshape terrestrial industries and lead to the emergence of new trillion-dollar markets on the Moon, Mars, and beyond. In particular, we believe our goal of establishing a lunar presence will enable terawatt-scale annual AI compute growth, support deeper space exploration and industrialization, and serve as a stepping stone to establishing a civilization on Mars.
There is no secret about this. If this scares you, do not invest. Mars is mentioned 60 times in there. That's what he's going to spend the money on if it comes to it. If you don't want to lose your money on a Mars mission then the guys who are saying they're going to spend your money on a Mars mission are not the guys for you.
I wonder if the scammers have been doing this already. Remember when you could buy naming rights to a star, or acreage on the moon? Elon selling lots on Mars might not feel far fetched to at least one demographic he already caters to.
That talks about trillion dollar markets. Nothing wrong with investing in Mars if money can be made. The problem is if he decides to create a mars base just because it's cool, not because it's profitable.
And yes, I don't plan to invest unless SpaceX stock somehow becomes cheap, which is very unlikely.
SpaceX has gotten reduced cost engineering since its inception, due to telling their employees that the entire purpose of SpaceX is to put humans on Mars. Everything was about making money while developing the technology to do, and then using that money to achieve that goal. Going public in this way fundamentally creates a conflict there. Given that Musk has already used SpaceX to bail out his Twitter acquisition, it feels like both investors and hopeful engineers are going to lose.
The one thing you can say though, is that “benefits himself” does not mean: buying a super yacht, a casino, an island, etc.
So yeah, he’d YOLO and do the Mars trip before any of the above. Which is what most nerds on HN would love, except their blind hatred for Musk would make them despise even that.
He’s certainly said things to deserve some hatred. I’m also lost why anyone thinks his mars trip is real. He has a long history of promising and not delivering.
There's no way in hell I'd even remotely consider trying to build a Mars base if i had all that money, either. It's a fucking stupid way to waste money.
> We believe that our current space efforts will catalyze transformative breakthroughs that could reshape terrestrial industries and lead to the emergence of new trillion-dollar markets on the Moon, Mars, and beyond. In particular, we believe our goal of establishing a lunar presence will enable terawatt-scale annual AI compute growth, support deeper space exploration and industrialization, and serve as a stepping stone to establishing a civilization on Mars.
There is no secret about this. If this scares you, do not invest. Mars is mentioned 60 times in there. That's what he's going to spend the money on if it comes to it. If you don't want to lose your money on a Mars mission then the guys who are saying they're going to spend your money on a Mars mission are not the guys for you.