[D_Alex]

That's all true... however the point that Google will get just $1 billion per year from Apple for the AI service is still insightful.

If AI use via Apple represents 10% of the total that vaguely implies that the total AI market is worth around $10 billion per year (which admittedly seems a bit low), and if it is just 1% (which also seems low) then we get $100 billion per year upper-end estimate.

Which just is not enough to justify the current valuations of AI companies.

[senordevnyc]

If AI use via Apple represents 10% of the total that vaguely implies that the total AI market is worth around $10 billion per year (which admittedly seems a bit low), and if it is just 1% (which also seems low) then we get $100 billion per year upper-end estimate.

This is a bizarre way to try and estimate market size.

Maybe Apple’s AI represents 100% of the market! Maybe it represents 0.000001%! We can make up any numbers we want!

Anthropic subscriptions alone already dwarf your $10 billion number.

[kristianp]

Uber was recently said to have a $1500 per head per month AI budget (1). Business use dwarfs consumer spend.

(1) https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=48383056