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by nandomrumber 11 days ago
The market can remain irrational longer than you can stay scared of it.
2 comments

Let's go check on the cautionary tales of the Tesla shorts.... poor folks, we let them run around in the yard of the asylum without a fence because they have lost the motivation even to run away. They just keep mumbling about PE ratios....
From my perspective it's more of a "stay away" type of stock (short or not). The price is not supported by business finance fundamentals, and seems to be pushed upward via the retail market, driven by Elon's gift for selling futurism to the masses. To me, the value of Musk's companies is dangerously dependent on one single person, in a way that I can't think of for any other current company. It makes "investment" in the company more speculative, and closer to other "retail mass" phenomena like "meme stocks" or cryptocurrency.

As an example here, in the 2022 (relatively mild) stock market downturn, when the S&P 500 gave back about 20%, TSLA dropped from a peak in the low 400s, to a low of 122... roughly a 70% drop peak to peak. It's back to ~400 now, and it could go higher again. But, in the next downturn, it could go a lot lower.

It doesn't mean it's a good investment. It's just a personality cult. I suspect it might take a generation or more to settle on some reasonable price.
The next time there is a real correction all of these “concept cult” stocks are going to get hammered.

“When the tide goes out we will find out who has no shorts on.”

The federal reserve can keep printing money for longer than anyone can afford.
We can print more money, but it's not about "affording" it, the money printing at most changes the value of the dollar (i.e. inflation/deflation).

The rest of the world wants dollars, and as long as they do, the US benefits massively from that demand, and it would be foolish not to satisfy that demand, as it's pure benefit to the US.

It seems that many are devoted to ending the status of the dollar as the reserve currency of the world, but it's a strange and subversive thing for any US resident to want or desire.