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by degamad 4 days ago
[flagged]
2 comments

I just woke up and THIS! ... you almost owe me a new keyboard! I love it!

This statement cleanly encapsulates the entire problem with all of the frontier models' companies' pre-IPO numbers.

They have something-something "new technology" and we don't know anything about how the market is going to settle on the ethics, the utility, the human capacity opportunity cost impacts of not training and/or mis-educating an entire cohort of intern-engineers for a few seasons to a generation, the full environmental costs of hardware and operations necessary for the training each new larger model, ... and we cant even quantify the unknown-unknowns - the risks we cannot forsee.

To predict market revenues for the next few years based on the curves, that they self report without external disclosure of the underlying numbers, is just like expecting your 2 yr old to continue growing at the same pace in the future and in the past - laughable. Good thing it was just water not coffee and it didnt quite come "out my nose" :- ) Thank you kind stranger!

Glad to be of service. I can't take credit for the idea, it was stolen from a meme I saw long ago, but it was one which sticks with you.
well if he takes after you i 'd say he tops out at 100m