[jeffreyrogers]

I'm sort of an AI skeptic but I have been seeing this guy's essays for years now and he has always been super pessimistic on AI progress.

I think a much more reasoned critique of AI is that of Tyler Cowen, whose argument is basically that most processes aren't constrained by lack of intelligence but by organizational and social factors which mean for AI to be useful you have to redesign organizations and work to take advantage of what AI is good at. Since most organizations are fairly bureaucratic that takes a while, especially in the large industries that are the most economically important.

Ed's criticism of the large AI companies seems particularly misguided to me since they are the ones actually advancing the technology and seem to have real moats given their access to large amounts of training data from their users. I don't see any possible future in which 5 or 10 years from now there is less AI than we have now and I would expect usage to be much higher.

[danny_codes]

Completely agree. AI is here to stay, it's going to garner more and more use overtime. However, I'm skeptical that the investments being made right now are at of the right scale & at the right time. I completely agree that over time we'll rework more and more of our society around LLMs or their successors. However, like you say it's a slow process: we have to learn how to do it effectively, organizations need to change, people's attitudes and behaviors have to adapt. I just don't see is "getting there" fast enough to justify current spending levels.