[loandbehold]

He implies $400 billion in revenue by the end of 2029 is unrealistic when in fact it's very doable if you look at the trajectory of this technology since ChatGPT 4.0 launch. Google and Meta bring in around $500 billion in ad revenue between two of them annually. ChatGPT will easily bring 100s of billions in ad revenue if fully monetized given 1. it has billion weekly active users 2. ChatGPT conversation provides even better context for ad targeting vs search or social media. Enterprise AI revenue is going through the roof already, and with computer use companies will literally be able to fire large percentage of white collar workers and replace them with AI agent without updating their software infra.

[Jedd]

Does that '100s of billions' come from a big bucket somewhere called 'spare cash', or does it correlate to a commensurate reduction in the 'around $500 billion in ad revenue' that Google and Meta are extracting?

Do your assumptions - " if you look at the trajectory " - factor in a slowing economy, a slowing growth in quality improvements in the tech, and/or the asymptote of market saturation for punters happy to stump up more than $50 a month?

[sailfast]

What about a few hundred billion in salary and benefits reductions due to mass layoffs?

Not saying this would be good (qualitatively) or even good business in any sense, but we’ve already seen companies willing to sacrifice headcount to cover CAPEX for these models.

[monodeldiablo]

A few hundred billion in salary and benefits reductions equates to millions of layoffs. At minimum, we'd be looking at something about the same magnitude as the 2008 financial crisis. That scale of workforce reduction would have profound implications for the broader economy.

In a consumption-driven economy, businesses need consumers. Any gains from these layoffs would be short term at best.

[vatsachak]

And if a pig had wings it could fly