[Terr_]

Please address the primary point first: Selling some product does not disprove speculation.

In the case of Enron, people were obviously speculating in its stock, and that remains true regardless of why it collapsed later, or even whether it collapsed at all.

I say "first" because if you still can't agree that speculation in AI stocks even exists, then it's pointless to discuss what people might be doing to exploit or encourage it.

[atleastoptimal]

Speculation exists for every security. However wrt revenue numbers, Anthropic/OpenAI’s revenues are largely made of companies/individuals purchasing tokens. Enron’s was accounting which stated future potential revenue as current earnings. They are not the same. Enron pulled off a lot of shady schemes to hide their accounting practices. All of the “circular deals” AI labs are doing are publicly known and clear to see, so its not like anyone who knows what a circular deal simply knows something everyone doesn’t.

Also to be more specific about our point of disagreement, I think we are referring to speculation in different domains. When I brought it up, I am referring to the fact that any companies whose revenue is driven by a speculative bubble (like what precipitated the 2008 crisis) would be at risk of massive losses "if the music stops". Anthropic/OpenAI aren't flipping assets. It is true that VC funding is based on speculation, but their core business model is producing massive revenue growth on selling tokens.

[fc417fc802]

It's an interesting point that the token revenue will presumably survive a crash in stock prices. But (IIUC) much of the new infrastructure is funded using stock is it not? So it seems like token revenue theoretically surviving doesn't address the risk to the rest of the economy here. And if the economy takes a large enough hit then presumably so will token spend because someone has to pay for that after all.

Sure their actual immediate revenue is driven by concrete numbers but when the rest of the economy is reorganizing itself based on their projected future revenue is the former observation still relevant?

[atleastoptimal]

That is true, if all the new data centers don’t produce revenue then there will be a crash. However you’d have to bet that the models won’t stop getting better, or if they still keep getting better, that somehow better models does not translate to increased productivity. Would it be wise to look at how AI has progressed over the last 5 years and make that bet?

[fc417fc802]

It's possible to question the accuracy of the projections without disputing that the numbers are expected to go up. It's not that the new data centers wouldn't produce any revenue but rather that those numbers are where unfounded speculation could be happening. If and when those numbers fail to materialize (or when investors revise their projections) would presumably be the point at which the music stops.

Recall that the exchange earlier called into question the similarity or difference to enron. Sure, the current revenue numbers don't appear to be cooked but if the future revenue numbers are unrealistic and everyone is using those future numbers to make their decisions then isn't the end result roughly analogous? Blatant fraud not withstanding of course.

Note that I'm not claiming the above to be the case. Merely illustrating the commonality and acknowledging the possibility.