[lenerdenator]

Kinda surprised at the idea that HPV is the cause; at least in the US, there was a fairly large push about 15 years ago to get more people (particularly teenage girls and young women) vaccinated against HPV. Would we not see a corresponding dip in deaths related to HPV-associated cancers by now?

[strictnein]

Two things, I think.

1. The original guidance did not call for boys to get the vaccine. It does now.

2. We're talking about two different age groups. The article talks about those under 50. The group who got the HPV vaccine as part of their normal schedule are now just hitting their early 20s.

There's also still a huge number of people in the US who have HPV. It's really, really common.

"Approximately 42.5 million Americans are infected with HPV and there are at least 13 million new infections annually" [0]

Interestingly, the article calls out HPV directly as a cause of an increase in anal cancers.

"While HPV-related cervical and vaginal cancer rates have decreased since 1999, rates for oropharyngeal and anal HPV-related cancers have increased."

[0] https://www.kff.org/womens-health-policy/the-hpv-vaccine-acc...

[UncleOxidant]

Any idea what the percentage of teenagers who are getting the HPV vaccine is? I'm going to guess it's fairly low at this point given that there tend to be religious objections and also given the growing antivaxx sentiments.

[strictnein]

Slightly paraphrased: "As of 2024, 62.9% of adolescents ages 13-17 with up-to-date HPV vaccine series"

Scroll down to the see the per state numbers.

https://www.kff.org/womens-health-policy/the-hpv-vaccine-acc...

[buescher]

True, but “normal schedule” is hiding a bit of subtlety there: the hpv vaccine was recommended for women up to 26 at the time, so the oldest women who got it then would be pushing 50 now.

[strictnein]

Not sure if there's something more recent than this, but it was about 15.5% of adults aged 27-45.

It also notes this:

"Human Papillomavirus (HPV) is the leading sexually transmitted infection in the United States, and 85% of sexually active individuals will be infected at some point in their lifetime"

So, if you're not vaccinated and have had multiple sexual partners, it is rather likely you have or have had HPV.

https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10.1080/21645515.2024.2...

[loeg]

There are many strains, though, and the vaccine provides coverage against a few of the most harmful, so it's still probably worth getting even if you may have been exposed to a subset of strains.

[loeg]

> The group who got the HPV vaccine as part of their normal schedule are now just hitting their early 20s.

Uh, their 30s.

[elric]

Several things at play here:

1. As others have mentioned, males were excluded from vaccination until relatively recently. This seems like such a stupid decision in hindsight. When I (male) got my vaccines, I was told that it wasn't routinely done in boys "because of availability issues", which I took to mean "because it's expensive".

2. Initial vaccines offered protection against 4 strains of HPV, newer vaccines protect against 9. People who got the older vaccines remain susceptible to the other 5 strains.

3. It can take years for an HPV infection to become dangerous or cancerous.

4. This last one is speculative, but I assume that when a woman tests positive for HPV or cervical cancer, their partner is also looked at. With the rates of symptoms and cancers going down in woman, their partners might fall through the gaps: there are no routine tests for males.

[picofarad]

The test for males used to be putting acetic acid on the genitalia and looking for spots under a blacklight, right? So what is it now? Blood test for the DNA?