[thomasahle]

> The rate of fundamental, broad-based breakthroughs lifting all LLM applications has clearly slowed with many of the most impactful recent discoveries being in scaling, optimization, tuning and productization toward specific domains.

To me it definitely feels like it's still accelerating, with the most impactful recent discovery being RL training reasoning models (late '24, early '25).

There's an interesting article called "sigmoids won't save you" https://www.astralcodexten.com/p/the-sigmoids-wont-save-you which argues that (unless you have privileged information) you should always assume a process will continue about as long as it’s continued already. (Lindy's Law)

With that in mind the current disruption should last another 10-15 years (assuming it started in '10 or '17.)