[taurath]

YTD Kospi is +173%, after the sell-off, compared to +10% for the Nasdaq. Not exactly... worrying territory there.

But yeah, I'm sorry this whole circular financing bubble with AI should crash. As someone who's in community with people outside tech, things are pretty fucking dire and a correction in asset prices would probably be better long term.

[JumpCrisscross]

> people outside tech, things are pretty fucking dire

Isn’t the jobs recession particular to tech [1]? (Well, and agriculture.)

[1] https://www.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.t14.htm

[queenkjuul]

It's pretty awful outside tech. I know a lot of people struggling to find work, and those that have jobs are struggling to keep up with their bills. Nobody's wages are keeping up with costs.

[JumpCrisscross]

Where are you geographically? The data indicate this varies wildly, with the West Coast seeing pain and the rest of the country seeing stability or even tightness [1].

[1] https://www.bls.gov/charts/state-employment-and-unemployment...

[queenkjuul]

Midwest USA. Friends and family across Illinois, Iowa, Nebraska, Colorado, and Ohio.

Gas and food prices have skyrocketed. Rent has gone up massively in formerly dirt-cheap cities like Omaha the last several years. Many people are severely underemployed and struggling to save, moving in with roommates or parents to get by. People that had stable working-middle class employment through the entire 2010s.

[hedora]

That data is just unemployment. It doesn’t address real wages.

Out here in California, I see headlines like “inflation hits 3.8%”, which seems right until I realize they mean YoY and not monthly, seasonally adjusted.

I know the Trump administration fired a bunch of economists for putting out honest numbers in 2025, so I trust the anecdotes and consumer sentiment stories over official numbers anyway.

I’d love to see third party CPI and inflation numbers, preferably by zipcode or at least state.

[JumpCrisscross]

> I see headlines like “inflation hits 3.8%”, which seems right until I realize they mean YoY and not monthly, seasonally adjusted

Seasonally adjusted, month over month annualized, inflation was 7.2% in April [1]. (3.8% YoY.) Until December, the California economy was doing well, with average weekly wages up 4.6% YoY [2].

But in 2026, “real average hourly earnings for all employees [nationwide] decreased 0.5 percent from March to April, seasonally adjusted” [3]. And as of March, we know California’s electricity prices have risen faster than national average, 15 to 20% versus 7.2% nationally [4], causing it to be one of the few states where retail consumption decreased.

Put together, we’d expect real earnings in California to have fallen faster than the national average. What you’re seeing is real and clearly present in the data and representative of a bad trend being compounded by regional headwinds.

[1] https://www.bls.gov/cpi/latest-numbers.htm

[2] https://www.bls.gov/charts/county-employment-and-wages/perce...

[3] https://www.bls.gov/news.release/realer.nr0.htm

[4] https://www.eia.gov/electricity/monthly/update/end-use.php

[dzhiurgis]

Memory shortage forecasted for at least half a decade, likely more. Why should it crash?

[ben_w]

Lots of possible stories if you write "and then it crashed" on the last line of a sheet of paper and work backwards.

e.g.

1. US economy becomes lopsided towards AI as per Dutch disease 2. US exports become relatively expensive, imports become relatively cheap, collapsing employment opportunities in general outside making more data centres 3. Nobody in the US except hyperscalers can afford anything 4. Fixed output from people still making consumer RAM not anticipating this 5. Oversupply relative to demand 6. Market price of consumer RAM collapses to shift stock

Of course, the ease of writing backwards is also why, famously, 11 of the last 2 recessions have been predicted. Or whatever the exact quote was.