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by skeledrew 4 days ago
Yeah the writing is on the wall. Not just for knowledge work, but for jobs in general, as I've been saying in other comments. The era of wage labour, and this dominant economic system, is coming to an end. There's no way it can coexist with AI, but it also needs to continuously push for better AI, which means there's no stopping it. The only thing to do really is brace for the disruption - which will likely be pretty rough - and hope governments play their role properly to ease the transition.
2 comments
weatherlite 4 days ago
I agree but I think it would take awhile. Some of us here seem to believe 2026-2027 is the end of programming jobs. At least that's Amodei seemed to be saying but then changed his mind later on?
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skeledrew 4 days ago
Well given the pace of improvement so far, it's possible - though not given, IMO - that before 2028 we'll have models that make programming jobs fully obsolete. But that doesn't mean jobs will suddenly disappear; many places, especially in 3rd world countries, will continue to have humans programming for a while yet. Just that the available positions will slowly taper out over several more years, until only the most critical systems are maintained by a few humans, and programming - and other knowledge work - becomes purely hobby. Manual work will follow the same trajectory as AI also accelerates innovation in robotics.
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weatherlite 4 days ago
It's possible , yes. For now I'm betting against it, we'll see.
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jplusequalt 4 days ago
Amodei has a track record of saying blatantly false shit in order to drive hype. At this rate, I see him as a snake oils salesman.
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bluefirebrand 4 days ago
> The only thing to do really is brace for the disruption - which will likely be pretty rough - and hope governments play their role properly to ease the transition.

What this sounds like to me is "sit and wait to get bulldozed now that your economic value to the elites is gone"

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skeledrew 4 days ago
That's exactly what I'm hoping won't happen. But I honestly don't have that much hope. The people in a position to make things easier love the way things are too much.
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