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by keyle 4 days ago
I sympathise with the author being in the same boat, largely.

I just want to emphasise a point... Calculators give 100% correct answers and yet we still hire accountants; for the simple fact that we don't want all to be accountants.

People will hire software engineers for the simple fact that they do not want to be software engineers.

5 comments

"calculator" ("computer") was a profession. not anymore.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Computer_(occupation)

Doesn't that support the point?

Computers came in and "took" the job of calculating numbers (I assume usually budgets and finances), but instead of every layman just using a computer to organize their company's finances, they still hire a professional to use the computer to organize the company's finances. The role shifted, but it wasn't eliminated.

there are literally no more people "computing" by hand. job as defined by "perform calculations by hand" is totally gone. none. nada.

this "shifting-role" rhetoric is very dangerous. making definitions fluid is a very slippery slope. you can arrive at any conclusion you want and support any point you want by changing defintions. seeing it in AI from C-level leaders is very concerning.

Do you object against calling people "farmers" because their way of operating is not the same as how farmers operated 500 years ago?
“Farmer” doesn’t describe a way of operating, it describes a property relationship.

So, no, I wouldn’t object to using that label for the same property relationship even if it came with a different pattern of operation.

With todays LLMs, yes. But if they can ever reach a level of a contractor in a reliable way and companies offering them willing to take responsibility (because confidence is high and rest is insured), then one can just hire a cheap AI agent to fulfill a contract - design, implement, deploy, run and maintain your service/website like the engineer before.

Calculators are not a replacement for accountants, online accounting services are in many cases. Which again can be run by an AI if they reach that level of reliability.

Today with LLMs this is still sci-fi, though.

I mean, if they can do that, then game over Terminator style.
People don't make their own bread. They buy it from an expert.

But bread shops are available on every corner. Will software jobs become as common as bread shops? If yes, what happens to the salaries? Something to think about.

There’s already an abundance of software in the world. People already wrote software they gave away from their homes in their spare time.
Are software jobs less common than bread shops now? By what metric?
You gotta become the owner of a bakery chain.
Accountants have specialized domain knowledge (laws, regulations, procedures, bureaucracy etc.) that goes well beyond what a calculator can do.

If we apply the same argument to software engineering I think it's a good point... just maybe not the one you intended to make.

Learning a company and it's product is so natural to us that we hardly talk about it. It's a key skill for reliable workers.

It's probably impossible for LLMs to learn and apply that wisdom reliably.

Why?

Humans learn this information from documentation and being exposed to all the different systems.

We know LLMs can ingest documentation like a sponge and access all different internal systems, resources and products via MCP Servers?

Of course they can, but if you give a LLM a specific rule, what happens is that it only shifts the probability of following the rule. Prohibiting a rule violation is technically impossible via prompting.

Humans do make mistakes or forget things as well. We learn to not rush on stairs and to not touch hotplates. A few bruises later that wisdom is permanent, at some point we don't even need to fail with everything to accept the rules.

A LLM is permanently at risk to break every given rule.

I think humans learn this from much more than documentation.

We learn it from conversations with our managers and peers. We learn it from reading between the lines of those conversations. We learn it by being in meetings and seeing who is reliable and who isn’t. Etc.

LLMs do great learning from documentation, but so much of what it takes for an employee to be successful isn’t and can’t be documented

> Humans learn this information from documentation and being exposed to all the different systems.

Do you work for the one company with reliable up-to-date documentation? If so you might be biased in your assessment.

funny i was able to do all my taxes this year with ai help and not needing accountant.
Lol thats brave on your part, given that a mistake can cost thousands and you have no accountability (punch!) from an LLM
In the US, all you need to work in tax prep is a high school diploma and most individuals are not worth the cost of an audit.

I wouldn't say it's particularly brave, in fact LLMs are probably better at identifying mistakes than most tax payers. The % of Americans using a CPA to file taxes is fairly small.

you know i had a tax accountant that said i dont have to cap gains on iso exercise . i checked it with ai that gave me all the detailed info that i took back to accountant who then agreed that they made a mistake. Even if you dont feel comfortable using ai for taxes. you can atleast understand your situation better. And go to accountant for final 10percent. It is not really that hard.
If you go by percentage of Americans, well consider the percentage of Americans that are actually net taxpayers.
Your account has no accountability. Do your taxes wrong and the tax payer is liable.

Ask me how I know.

At least he has a reputational/commercial risk. LLM has none
Are you in the USA? Brave person if so.
That's fine if you have a relatively straightforward situation. If the situation is a bit more complex, with important decisions you should consider, it might still need some eyeballing and time. That is accounting.
I mean, I was able to do all my taxes this year with H&R Block and no AI and no accountant.