[jmkni]

This is an active conversation going on at my day job right now (and I suspect many other peoples too)

Every developer (we have about 100) has Github Copilot, and interestingly some barely use it while others use it a lot (about 70% of usage comes from a handful of devs), and the dashboard shows you exactly who is using which models, and how much

I definitely don't think they will just go along with paying 10/20x more than before without seeing some sort of return on that investment

We've already had the we're spending all this money on AI, why aren't we shipping software faster conversation multiple times

My prediction is that those high users, costing the most money, will be watched carefully (one colleague even suggested half-jokingly that whoever tops the leaderboard should have to give everyone else a presentation on what they spent all those AI credits on)

The sweet spot is to have good competent developers who users AI when it actually makes sense, but aren't dependent on it

[credit_guy]

As of now, most people haven't figured out how to use AI productively. It takes time. Maybe 1 in 20 developers have come up with a good workflow to get AI-assisted coding done without a lot of slop. The remaining 19 either got burned a few times, or still use AI in a 2023-style: ask AI for a code snippet in a chatbox, then copy-paste it to the code base.

But one or two years from now, many more people will have learned how to be productive with AI. Knowledge will percolate.

And for all those people, the companies will ask themselves: is this guy's 20% increase in productivity worth $200 per month? If that increase in productivity is actually worth $2000 per month, then the answer will be an unequivocal yes. Not only that, but the need to switch to lower cost AI providers, so the $200 is lowered to $20 will just not be worth the extra headache of having to go through all the approvals to onboard a new vendor.

That is the Copilot's moat.