[labcomputer]

Oh, but they already have that figured out.

You can't become a licensed electrician without doing x hours of apprenticeship under licensed electrician. And each licensed electrician doesn't need more than one or two helpers at a time, so...

Hollywood is the same. Want to join SAG? You need to get cast in 5 SAG productions. Oh, but SAG productions only cast SAG actors? Oh well...

Meanwhile, all us nerds were trying to teach anyone interested how to write software. Look where that got us.

[bottle_roket]

I think they meant what will trade jobs look like when there are half as many highly paid knowledge workers able to fork out for their services?

[sarchertech]

Yeah that’s what I meant. White collar jobs are 45% of all jobs, and they are much more than 45% of all work income because they pay better on average.

If AI really does come in and destroy all that no job is safe. Blue collar households don’t hire tradesman at anywhere near the rate that white collar households do.

In a major economic downturn like that new construction dries up. The commercial work will dry up to as all those white collar companies close their offices.

The end result is that existing tradesman will be fighting over a much smaller pie. Plus they’ll be dealing with competition from all the unemployed knowledge workers trying to change careers. In some states and some trades new entrants will be less of an issue, but most trades in most states aren’t supply restricted like the above poster’s electrician example.

My point is getting to the trades isn’t going to protect you from AI taking your job unless AI takes over a small percent of jobs and stops. I don’t actually think AI is going to take all that many jobs myself, but if I’m wrong we’re going to have to completely rework our economy.