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by jameshilliard 6 days ago
> the 30k number is hogwash

30k is one estimate of actual deaths, it's expected to be higher than any verified number of deaths.

Most estimates fall into the range of 20k to 40k from my understanding so 30k is certainly plausible.
1 comments
orwin 6 days ago
The absolute maximum number of deaths imputable to the IRGC during the winter revolt is 18k. Of that, only 7k have been verified, and of that, only 6k have been from protesters. The reason the 11k have been harder to verify is that most of them were in the fringe of the country, far from hospital, in rural area, and the fighting there was intense. A good part of the unverified 11k might have been civilians caught in the crossfire (an element of propaganda from the IRGC in Baluchistan is that separatists are terrorists targeting civilians, which is 'funny' (very relatively) because it looks a lot like western usual propaganda)
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jameshilliard 6 days ago
> The absolute maximum number of deaths imputable to the IRGC during the winter revolt is 18k.

Source? I'm curious how you could even verify an absolute maximum given the IRGC/Regime has heavily suppressed information relating to deaths.

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orwin 4 days ago
HRANA and other watchdogs who actually have people in Iran.

[Edit] https://www.en-hrana.org/the-crimson-winter-a-50-day-record-...

It's even better documentation that i thought, they added the methodology now.

If I remember correctly, the methodology from the NYT and other western MSM was 'the last time, IRGC said 80 death and HRANA said 800, so now since the IRGC recognise 3k death, it should be 30k!' which was then amplified to 40, 50 and even 60k from an Israeli outlet, in 3 days, when the protests and insurgency lasted over 50 days. Honestly I don't trust any numbers if it's published in an American outlet anymore. I now trust 'house of Saoud' more than WaPo or NYT.

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