[gretch]

> Anyone who holds bonds in this market will likely lose money.

Yes, you lose money (or more precisely you lose opportunity) but you gain certainty. Which is what you want for retirement

That’s pretty much the definition of risk premium.

[randerson]

Bonds only give you certainty to the extent that inflation remains certain.

Stocks generally rise with inflation, whereas bonds continue paying out the same nominal amount, which buys you less over time.

As a retiree I'm 50/45/5 in stocks/bonds/cash, having opted for a conservative portfolio. The stocks are the only reason I haven't lost buying power. But the bonds have performed so poorly that I've barely kept up with inflation despite the amazing bull run in stocks.

[kgwgk]

You may not have heard of TIPS (Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities) but they give you certainty even if inflation is uncertain.

Currently you get 2.75% yield in real terms for the 30 year maturity: https://www.cnbc.com/quotes/US30YTIP

[Marazan]

That's why you buy inflation linked bonds

[throwaway2037]

Wow, I am surprised that you think 50% in stocks as a retiree is a "conservative portfolio".

[marticode]

Are we talking about bonds or government bonds here? The former will beat inflations assuming you don't just buy AAA rated ones. Investment grade perpetual bonds in US dollars yield over 6.5% on a Yield-to-call basis.

[riffraff]

Which perpetual bonds yield 6.5% on a UTC basis?

[lokar]

It depends on the goal / priority. In most financial / retirement advice they are focused on average middle class Americans. They tend to have too little savings, and not a lot of options.

If you have more than enough saved to meet your basic needs, it does (IMO) make sense to give up some total income for lower variance.

[SecretDreams]

I sleep on certainty. I feel bad for the people based their futures entirely on a trajectory from a time we'll look back on as "utterly unsustainable".

[toomuchtodo]

If you don’t have hope when you have little else, you don’t have anything. The behavior is understandable, even if wildly irrational.