Jokes aside, my previous role was with a Mag 7 company covering the Asian automotive sector, and the speed of innovation, manufacturing yield increase and cost optimization due to extreme competition across the Chinese EV ecosystem, including battery leaders like CATL, was genuinely eye-opening.
Based on what I saw, and how visibly non-Chinese automakers are struggling to keep pace while looking over their rear view mirrors at the Chinese EV industry, my view is that the broader auto industry is heading for a major structural reset. Protectionism will slow it somewhat, but the broader unit economics will no longer support the current number of auto companies.
My prediction is that over the next 5 to 10 years, Mobility-as-a-Service, whether on-demand or subscription-based, will become the default model in dense urban markets. Private EV ownership will persist, but increasingly in suburban, rural, or less densely populated areas where shared mobility is less practical.
I have exited all my auto positions. And yes, Tesla should probably trade closer to a 30x P/E at most. A 300x-plus multiple is indeed disconnected from reality.
On the other hand, I'm keenly watching Waymo (and to a lesser extent Uber and Zoox), as potential future MaaS players perfect their autonomous vehicles/driver-less tech.
Based on what I saw, and how visibly non-Chinese automakers are struggling to keep pace while looking over their rear view mirrors at the Chinese EV industry, my view is that the broader auto industry is heading for a major structural reset. Protectionism will slow it somewhat, but the broader unit economics will no longer support the current number of auto companies.
My prediction is that over the next 5 to 10 years, Mobility-as-a-Service, whether on-demand or subscription-based, will become the default model in dense urban markets. Private EV ownership will persist, but increasingly in suburban, rural, or less densely populated areas where shared mobility is less practical.
I have exited all my auto positions. And yes, Tesla should probably trade closer to a 30x P/E at most. A 300x-plus multiple is indeed disconnected from reality.
On the other hand, I'm keenly watching Waymo (and to a lesser extent Uber and Zoox), as potential future MaaS players perfect their autonomous vehicles/driver-less tech.