The Facts: Tesla wasted billions for Cybertruck, hasn't had a new real model for years, promises Full Selfdriving without supervision for a decade and other companies are either on the same level or better.
xAI has such a shitty AI, that he makes more profit renting his Compute instead of making profit directly from it as the companies doing who have better AI then him.
Space-X is a limited business and he tries to make it unlimited by selling stories of Mars and dyson spheres (literaly), no one will ever finance or need as long as we have still desserts everywhere. In parallel his Starlink business gets competition left and right and despite this, he only has 10 Million customers AND increased prices for STarlink just last month or so.
And the payload, most payload increase is only Starlink. He has to sell us a story, that suddenly even with Starship, he can send so much payload up there to make Space-X this mega trillion company.
He can't even scale Starlink. Its expensive. The satelites work for 5 years and have limited capacity. He NEEDS Spaceship to be able to send up Starlink Server v3 and he hasn't even prooven he can get his ship back which he needs for the payload price.
Twitter/X? Yeah he tanked that one.
Optimus? When did you see the latest non faked demo? And while he works on it, we already have the market cornered here.
I'm just as dumbfounded about Tesla's stock value vs what it does in the market and will trash talk Elon all day long but SpaceX is a different beast. I know of whole industries that are just waiting for the ability to get more stuff into space for less. The company will succeed despite him once Starship is established.
Check out K2 Space. They are planning a large bus satellite that can ferry deliverables to different orbits. They are just one of many many companies just itching to send large mass objects into space at low cost.
They are doing the same marketing garbage as Space-X and to no surprise, were founded by ex Space-X people.
You need companies actually wanting to send stuff up there.
Musk and K2 Space are desperate for customers and the fact, that they talk about datacenter in space, which doesn't make sense (for at least the next 30-50? years), should tell you everything you need to know.
It is very easy to just lay down energy cables and fiber somewere and build a datacenter. This datacenter can get upgraded hardware without any further big investments, is running for years without issues, can be maintenanced and the origianl infrastructure gets cheaper every single year.
Someone said Space-X is a generational company. Like wtf? Every normal datacenter on earth will always be cheaper on the ground than in space. The only advantage you have in space is solar energy efficency and these prices are still dropping on earth and you don't need to send these panels up in space. And batteries will have a fast RoT.
In space, you have to first even build and solve fundamental issues like "how do i cool reliable a lot of energy", "how do i send big payloads reliable to space", "How can i build datacenter hardware/rebuild datacenter hardware to be space stable".
And why are they doing this because they have to not because its more cost efficient.
Leo orbit is a lot better than what we had before with 30km but your mobile phone can't suddenly do realtime and low latency internet just because starlink sells it like this. The current starlink mobile phone service is still slow and they need to even prove they can do it. For this they need starship because the starlink v3 satelites, they need, are to heavy for falcon 9.
And it doesn't make it better for Space-X if they already have other companies who also want to do this as it lowers their margin and they need to recup their R&D.
Space-X Starlink satelites are the main driver of payload increase in the last few years. Starlink itself!
Not sure how we went from space x will fail to there are no companies new industries to the new industries are lying to data centers don’t make sense.
There are plenty of reason for space data centers the big one would be: the public is moving against data centers. So plenty of space up there that isn’t regulated. Cooling is not impossible, the ISS does it. It’s not out the realm of science, just needs to be solved. And they are already sending up startlink satellites, why not just make them bigger with the right cooling equipment and then not be concerned about longevity, just let it burn up when it’s of no use.
Ok, you might be right about all of that. None of that changes the actual fact on the ground that the IPO valuation is currently being set at nearly 100x sales, and for god-knows-what-reason, enough people appear to be willing to actually pay it in order to justify that valuation.
Go argue with the entire market. I'm just the messenger.
See also: "The Madness of Crowds"
On Wall Street,people think they are betting on the fin performance of Companies, when in fact you are betting on the crowd's perception of a company's performance.
While you’re not wrong at all in the concept of your post, I wouldn’t call AOL a particularly innovative company. They basically innovated once and then went straight into lazy rent-seeking for the rest of their existence.
I don’t know if I would put Cisco or Nortel in that category, either. They were like gold rush pickaxe companies. The pickaxes themselves weren’t particularly innovative in their case.
A lot of the innovative companies from the dot com era are still around.
xAI has such a shitty AI, that he makes more profit renting his Compute instead of making profit directly from it as the companies doing who have better AI then him.
Space-X is a limited business and he tries to make it unlimited by selling stories of Mars and dyson spheres (literaly), no one will ever finance or need as long as we have still desserts everywhere. In parallel his Starlink business gets competition left and right and despite this, he only has 10 Million customers AND increased prices for STarlink just last month or so.
And the payload, most payload increase is only Starlink. He has to sell us a story, that suddenly even with Starship, he can send so much payload up there to make Space-X this mega trillion company.
He can't even scale Starlink. Its expensive. The satelites work for 5 years and have limited capacity. He NEEDS Spaceship to be able to send up Starlink Server v3 and he hasn't even prooven he can get his ship back which he needs for the payload price.
Twitter/X? Yeah he tanked that one.
Optimus? When did you see the latest non faked demo? And while he works on it, we already have the market cornered here.