okay, let me rephrase that: would it have taken two wars to subdue that tiny, sparsely populated country had that country been armed with nothing but sticks, stones, and Molotov's?
Ah, yes the famous sticks with "AK-74" and "RPG" on them.
It's also amusing how the stupid Soviets took two wars to subdue that tiny, sparsely populated country had that country been armed with nothing but sticks, stones, and Molotov's; while the mighty, eagle screeching top-tech first world economy with a giant student debt took checks notes two decades to accomplish check the notes again replacing Taliban with Taliban in a "country been armed with nothing but sticks, stones, and Molotov's".
Probably? We can look at the English attempts at "pacifying" Ireland during the XIX and XX century... my point is, if you really need your uprising against a decisive and ruthless government to succeed, you better get foreign backing and a shitload of supplies and training from them, and even then it may be crushed; having small firearms "pre-deployed" amongst the population won't really help all that much.