My Humble AI Market Prediction

[filup]

In 12 - 18 months we get local models that match the capabilities of 4.6.

The overall capabilities will peak, and we all get highly efficient code forges in a box available in everyone's home. AI the is a generator, an advanced compiler, not a place for runtime. It's best used as a powerful hammer aimed at one thing until the structure is 'built', then we put the hammer away and enjoy the spoils.

These data centers are being built on the assumption that billions of people will constantly query heavy models all day long. There will be a massive overcapacity problem because no one will need them.

The Big players are not even trying to hide this. They will do everything they can to prevent it. This is why we see the safety and regulatory capture of new models. It's the exact turning point of when their entire model collapses.

[daniel-alexande]

Massive overcapacity = prices crashing down. This whole space is going to be interesting to watch. Would be great if we could get a local model that I can run on my raspberry pi.

[bigyabai]

There are already local models that surpass 4.6 in benchmarks, they're just extremely difficult to run.

[filup]

Specifically, when I can run on a 5-7k computer.

[bigyabai]

Which 5-7k computer? It's entirely feasible to run Minimax 2.5 on a 3k computer.

[lostmsu]

I don't believe it is feasible to run Minimax 2.5 on a 3k computer.

[bigyabai]

Maybe not your 3k computer, but that's why I ask.

[lostmsu]

I'd bet it's not my Minimax instead.

[filup]

I don't believe 4.6 and minmax 2.5 are on the same level.