[ascendantlogic]

Bitcoin (and crypto at large) goes through these 4 year cycles repeatedly. Each time people claim its dead, "this time is different", etc etc. It peaked at the end of 2024 and now we're in mid 2026...traditionally near the bottom of the cycle. There IS someone in the White House now that seems hellbent on driving the global economy into the ground but until there's definitive evidence that this time really is different, I'm going to assume it's business as usual and people screaming about how its over is just the buy indicator it's been many times in the past.

[catigula]

There's no such thing as predicting the future when it comes to assets. Patterns aren't guarantors of future returns. If they were; the asset would be a sure-thing. Your confidence isn't warranted.

[ascendantlogic]

I'm well aware it's not a guarantee of future returns but as I said in my original message, this is a well established pattern. Until there's definitive evidence that it has stopped acting according to that pattern I'm going to disregard the "it's dead for real this time" crowd.

"History does not repeat itself, but it often rhymes"

[shlant]

lets's come back to this one year from now and see if it bottoms around Oct 6

[fsflover]

> Each time people claim its dead, "this time is different", etc etc

Related: https://www.bitcoinisdead.org/

[the_gastropod]

Technical analysis is just astrology for finance bros.

[ascendantlogic]

I'm not a TA nerd, but there is a very clear pattern that has been established. Crypto moves in cycles. You don't need to draw a ton of triangles and lines all over a chart to see the cycle this has gone through over and over.

[the_gastropod]

If it were a reliable predictor, it’d be trivial to become a billionaire by levering up, and riding the next “cycle” up, no? You doing it? I suspect not, because you know it’s not actually a reliable predictor of anything.

[ascendantlogic]

You can suspect all you want, I'm not here to argue with anyone's strong feelings about crypto either way. Just that there's an established pattern to how this particular market moves.