[dotancohen]

US military deterrence has been a paper tiger ever since Biden told Iran "don't" [1], and Iran did, and Biden did not respond. Now whoever the sitting US president would be - Trump or anybody else - must restore that deterrence. There is no nice or easy way to do that. The last time the US had to do that was during WW2 and the enemies were not floating heavy, extended media campaigns and funding US universities at the time.

[1] https://m.youtube.com/shorts/A8ce6wzoReA

[sofixa]

The reason why Iran was even back in the nuclear game was because a moron pulled out of the JCPOA that was giving them concrete steps and carrots to get them to stop.

[defrost]

An agreement that had independent inspectors from several countries accessing utilities and leaving behind tamper resistant (and tamper revealing) instrumentation at regular intervals (along with the usual back and forth robust discussions).

The sort of gear that could count atoms from Fukushima drifting across the oceans to end up in HVAC filters in middle North America.

[cmxch]

For the benefit of those who missed it the first time:

The Just Cash Pallets Over Americans agreement, where Iran was rewarded for all the wrong things and the public kept in the dark.

[dotancohen]

The JCPOA agreements were set to expire in January 2026 - and then Iran could continue their nuclear ambitions. The only people who could support those agreements either:

1. Didn't read them and know that they expire in 10 years.

2. Think that 10 years is a long enough time in the future where whatever happens then doesn't matter to their current goals.

3. Would like to see a nuclear-capable Iran.

For what it's worth, January 2026 already passed 5 months ago.

[sofixa]

Or alternatively, in 2026 Iran would have been hooked on closer economic cooperation and trade, (relative) reformers would be in power, and the deal would have been renewed. Yanking the deal all but guaranteed that the hardliners would go back in charge, because they were proven right - the US could not be trusted to keep its word, so negotiations don't matter, the only thing that would actually protect them is nuclear weapons.

> Would like to see a nuclear-capable Iran.

Postponing their nuclear programme with at least 10 years is absolutely worth doing. Because realistically you cannot, I repeat, cannot force them to stop it. If the regime wants to continue, it will and their facilities deep under the mountains are impenetrable.

[dotancohen]

  > Or alternatively, in 2026 Iran would have been hooked on closer economic cooperation and trade, (relative) reformers would be in power, and the deal would have been renewed.

Oh, so you expect to change their culture and their value system. And do that in only 10 years.

That's called imperialism. I believe it's no longer fashionable.

[sofixa]

> Oh, so you expect to change their culture and their value system

What do you mean culture and value system? You think isolation and nuclear weapons are parts of the Iranian culture????

And yes, Iran had multiple bouts of reformer presidents. Reformer within the limits of what the Supreme Leader would allow of course, but there is still a massive gulf of difference between them and the hardliners. A few years of visible economic development under reformers would have nudged things in the reconciliation direction.

Again, yanking the deal, even before the current strikes during negotiations, ensures that Iran will never fully trust the US. So realistically, what other choices do they have other than procure nuclear weapons for protection?

[dotancohen]

You said that "closer economic cooperation and trade" might lead to "(relative) reformers would be in power". Westerners "reforming" other cultures has not been fashionable for about half a century.

[amalcon]

So, there would now need to be new negotiations as to the future of the Iranian nuclear program? Except with Iran in a weaker position than they actually are today, due to a decade of no progress on enrichment.

How is that worse than the current situation? Iran is closer to nuclear capability now than in your counterfactual, yet those who disagree with you are the ones who want a nuclear-capable Iran?

[ben_w]

The Millenium Challenge was 2002, predating Biden by about 20 years, and was the same year Iran was named as part of the "Axis of Evil".

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Millennium_Challenge_2002

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Axis_of_evil#2002_State_of_the...

[dotancohen]

Yes, Iran had had nuclear ambitions for decades. How is that relevant?

[ben_w]

Are you asking how the 2002 Millenium Challenge showing that the US Navy would lose any directy military engagement with Iran by a large margin is relevant to "The American navy was already a paper tiger ~20 years before your example with Biden"?