[henry2023]

It's hard to know if SpaceX will flop in a week or in a decade but what I'm pretty confident on is a lot of retail capital allocated in Tesla will be redistributed to SpaceX.

So my trade on IPO day will be long $X SpaceX, short $X Tesla. Wait 1 month. Wish me luck.

[jjav]

> So my trade on IPO day will be long $X SpaceX, short $X Tesla. Wait 1 month. Wish me luck.

Risky, IMO. I've been closing my TSLA shorts because I think he'll just use spacex stock to buy tsla at a very overvalued price, just to wipe out all the shorts.

[henry2023]

Fair, but Tesla is valued at 1.6T while SpaceX is going to start at 1.75T.

If SpaceX ever has the ability to buy Tesla in an all Stock deal at a high Tesla price then SpaceX would need to expand faster than Tesla which is precisely my trade.

[CactusBlue]

How do you know that this isn't already priced by quant firms?

[henry2023]

Even if it's expected most can't do the trade because we're Pre-IPO.

Also, realized move always carries more value than expected because of uncertainty.

[TurdF3rguson]

More like: why would you think it's not already priced in. Answer: I'm super special!

[henry2023]

I'm not special, this is a pretty basic idea so there's no edge here but that doesn't mean there's no trade.

Also, you'd be surprised at how simple the most profitable Quant strategies are.

[satvikpendem]

Musk's plan is to merge Tesla and SpaceX into one company.

[amai]

New name: Stark Industries?

[henry2023]

No, something more original more relatable: X Technologies. /s

[satvikpendem]

It will unironically be named X, because Musk has an obsession with the letter since the PayPal days.