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by enoch_r 15 days ago
Exactly what pool of people are we drawing from here? How big is our denominator?

- Anthony Chavez was a foreman supervising construction at Los Alamos. Retired in 2017.

- Melissa Casias (from this article) was an administrative assistant at Los Alamos.

- Steven Garcia was a "property custodian at KCNSC."

- Jason Thomas was associate directory of chemical biology at Novartis (pharma company) on cancer treatment.

- McCasland retired 13 years before he went missing.

- Nuno Loureiro was a plasma physicist at MIT.

So the denominator here has to include:

- current and former employees (at all levels, including clerical positions like Melissa Casias or construction workers like Anthony Chavez) of government research facilities

- management at pharmaceutical companies (or presumably, other STEM companies as well?).

- academics working in STEM fields (MIT plasma physicist Nuno Loureiro)

So you have to ask yourself two questions:

- how big is the pool that we're drawing these deaths from? and

- given a pool of this size, how many people in it would you expect to die in a ~3 year period?

To me the answer is really boring - this number of deaths is just utterly unsurprising. It honestly doesn't even rise to the level of being a "coincidence." It's a complete non-event.

1 comments

The 2025/2026 subset is a bit more interesting than the full set. Also, only in America would 'walking off with a handgun and disappearing' be considered normal. But yes, no proof of foul play.