[nopurpose]

On the other hand we keep seeing only marginal generational imorovements in CPU space, yet performance gains over last 10 years in CPUs are very material.

Every new model might not be a leap like it used to be, but give it enough time and improvements add up.

[Forgeties79]

Nobody is disputing that. I specifically said that I can see the improvements from the last six months. What I’m saying is we can’t assume that every two years it will improve at the same rate.

The further we get into this, the more AI feels like 3-D printing. Significantly bigger and will be more widely used for sure. But nowhere near the “new industrial revolution” that all these companies are making it out to be

[nopurpose]

Do you agree that economic and behaviour shift will be comparable to mobile and we are at the times of Nokia 3310. Does it count as industrial revolution?

[Forgeties79]

I think that’s kind of a strange question/parallel that doesn’t have a concrete answer, partially because even the people making these tools don’t really know where it’s going to land or what the ultimate utility is. Hence why they’re begging all of us to figure out the billion dollar applications for them.

Ultimately they are clearly here to stay but I think they are going to be incredibly important in some industries and minimally present in others (a glorified chatbot/summarizing tool for instance). Whatever form it takes it’s definitely not going to be a model where individuals have subscriptions they pay for monthly.

[nopurpose]

> even the people making these tools don’t really know where it’s going to land

exactly my point to compare it with pre-iPhone mobile market: wide (and growing fast!) adoption, clear potential (WAP websites, J2ME games), many players in the game, some real market fit discovered already (Blackberry), influx of capitial and tinkerers alike, but still a lot of unknowns where it will ultimately land.

Even if no single improvement was revolutionary (even first iPhone was just a fancy phone without App Store), overall mobile made billion dollar industries possible, for better or worse, and changed the way we live. Counts as industrial revolution, comparable to the Internet itself in my eyes.

[fragmede]

What would 3D printing have to do in order for it to be the new industrial revolution to you?

[Forgeties79]

Everyone has one at home spitting out items they need daily/weekly like was promised. I don't know if you remember the 3D printer (somewhat) boom of the 2010's but the hype was crazy when it became more mainstream. Maker spaces popping up in cities everywhere, schools showing off their units, every conference had some talk on them, startups left and right. The AI boom is basically a more-funded version of that. It was hot hot hot and people thought every home was bound to have one.

[fragmede]

It took a while, especially because the early 3D printers were a project of calibration unto themselves, but modern printers are fairly trouble free. I accidentally melted the bottom of my blender jug on my toaster oven so I'm printing a replacement one right now. Turns out the critical mass needed is someone else having already done the CAD so I can just hit print from my phone, which makes 3D printing a reality.

[chasd00]

The difference with AI is it affects all technology at the same time. 3d printing only affected manufacturing. What we're seeing now has impact in chemistry, medicine, software, and all other knowledge industries at the same time.