[mrandish]

This exposes a fundamental (and obvious) problem with not just SpaceX but the OAI and ANT IPOs as well. Their valuations are massive far beyond what the existing GAAP revenue and profit can justify, forcing large percentages of the valuation to rely on multiple future events not only happening but happening on the upper-end of any reasonable probability curve based on real-world priors.

While all IPO valuations rely on forward-looking expectations, IPOs this large don't usually rely this much, on this many forward expectations for which there are so few real-world comps or priors to inform estimates. In short, when the error bars are in danger of swamping the signal, wild swings are likely. I expect more than one of these three to drop at least 10% relative to the overall market at some point in their first 18 months. All the potential upside (and probably much more) is already priced in. So taking this bet at the IPO price requires valuations most worry are already too high not only being correct but too low by quite a lot. To paraphrase Alice in Wonderland, these valuations require 'believing as many as six unlikely things before breakfast.'

That said, I'll also predict that one of them will be trading >50% higher than its first year low ten years later (vs the overall market). Basically, they are all hugely overvalued in the ~3 year time frame but one may turn out to have been undervalued in 10 years. So, regardless don't buy any of them at IPO. If you're interested in one or more of them, wait for it to drop >10% vs the market and then re-evaluate for early indicators it might be 'the one'.