You're repeating tired quotes without even understanding what they mean. The quote "longer than you can stay solvent" refers to short selling. Here you are using it in the opposite context: to describe a long position. It makes no sense. How exactly would a non leveraged long position get margin called?
I think this comes down to a disagreement about what "long term" means. In finance, I would suggest a _lower_ bound on long term is 10 years. More comfortably, I'd suggest something like 20-30 years. This is long enough to ride out most depressions, and it is still fits within a persons working life-time. It also roughly matches the scale at which people should be planning for retirement and long-term care (imagine if you started your retirement planning just 10 years from retirement, it would be very difficult). So I think neither BTC's not TSLA's hype has reached long-term yet. They have been around long enough to meet some of these timelines, but the excessive hype really hasn't been so long -- maybe 5 years or so.
Can we stop just repeating quotes like those over and over. If you have thoughts, please articulate them, its pretty frustrating to see the same exact quotes repeated over and over whenever there is a submission stock related
> As is the case with Elon's companies (and a bit of the market itself), it feels like any logical valuation has no impact on the actual stock price.
Has this type of phenomenon been studied or formalized in any way by economists? I mean specifically how a cult of personality develops around a single individual causing the market to lose its shit. Or the increasing meme-ification of financial instruments.
These are both uniquely 21st century phenomena. But I'm not familiar enough with finance / economics to know what to read up on to understand what is going on.
The irrational exuberance around Tesla was at least somewhat grounded in reality. There were some possible future(s) where it was really going to take off and completely redefine the auto industry. Then of course things went really off the rails with the Cybertruck, pivot to robotics, and just seemingly giving up on their existing line of business to go chasing whatever bong fueled dream Musk is having this quarter.
SpaceX is on a whole new level of bullshit. I think all these guys know how to do is double down. If the hype isn't working, its not stupid and big enough, so you start talking about transhumanism and singularity and other BS in your SEC filings.
Without Musk, they wouldn't have squandered their market advantage with high-profile failure after high-profile failure. They would have released a good enough pickup truck in 2017. They wouldn't have spent a whole decade gaslighting everyone about self-driving cars.
The real reason Tesla was remarkable, and why Musk bought into it, was that they released a mass-market electric car that didn't look and perform like a vacuum cleaner and that got an okay range for commuting. That was the value proposition. China can now exceed those design parameters at a wholesale price of about $8k USD.
In the short term the market is a popularity machine but in the long term it is a weighing machine.