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by pzo
17 days ago
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I did have few days ago conversation with AI to research how the economical environment was just before Great Depression and this doesn't look good if true. Definitely feels like someone try to dump their bags to retails investors and main street. - Trailing P/E: 1929 peak was 32.6 vs. 32.67 today. - Shiller PE (CAPE): 1929 peak was ~30 vs. 42.66 today (2nd highest in history). - Buffett Indicator: Market cap was 124% of GNP in 1929 vs. 259.6% of GDP today. - Margin Debt to GDP: 3.0% in 1929 vs. 4.1% ($1.304T) today. - Systemic Risk: 1929 margin debt was 10-12% of total market cap vs. 1-2% today. Modern leverage has structurally shifted from retail to sovereign debt and shadow banking. |
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