[A_D_E_P_T]

> The stock market doesn't operate on long-term principles anymore.

It has been broken since ~2008 (ZIRPs, etc.) and has really gone off the rails since BTC and memestocks have taken off. Now everything's a memestock. It's all vibes-based.

[fireflash38]

People have seen others make insane, life changing money at this slot machine and are wanting to take their chances.

There are no fundamentals.

There is very low signal to the noise.

[bumby]

>People have seen others make insane, life changing money at this slot machine and are wanting to take their chances.

Isn’t this the exact same sentiment from the late 1920s when people were making “insane, life changing” money by buying equities on margin?

[Eddy_Viscosity2]

This time is different.

It may well though, because now we have an automatic buy from the government to 'fix' the market if it 'breaks'. The line goes up.

[dualvariable]

The fact that so many people think the Fed will step in and magically keep the number up is why I'm pretty certain this is going to turn out like the late-20s.

The cynical nihilists have capitulated to the stock market always going up, that has to be flashing a very bearish warning sign.

[idiotsecant]

That just means it's like the 1920s even harder, just on a time delay fuse

[timacles]

People really think we have found a way to negate the laws of physics. As of there can exist a system without entropy.

Humans are prisoners of the present moment, but just think what a market is. What does it really mean as it accumulates disorder for decade plus.

Can the market just continue to deviate from a markets actual purpose forever? Hell, can anything in this universe exist in a particular state forever.

If it can’t, then it means at some point things have to go in the other direction. Use your imagination what that means for the largest most complex (man made) system in the history of this planet.

[bumby]

Money and economics are not “physics”. They are social constructs and not immutable natural laws. Prices can go up as long as people are willing to inflate PE ratios; this isn’t the same as saying my weight will increase indefinitely because acceleration due to gravity increases.

[bumby]

Given the current sentiment as well as the past response for "too big to fail", I can definitely see why one might think this time is different.

[surgical_fire]

The question is how long until things break.

I wouldn't advocate for betting against any of this. But I took my money out of the stock market a few months ago.

Shorting is too risky and depends a lot on timing. Staying clear of this mess is a safer bet.

[dgllghr]

The Stock Market of the Spectacle

[bdcravens]

Honestly you can go back much further than that. Every few years it's broken for different reasons, but the exuberance is irrational all the same.

[maeln]

I don't think there is a single thing that explain the absolute joke that is the current market. Algorithmic trading, high-frequency trading, deregulation, passive investment, “finance” influencer pump and dumping ... But in general, I do believe it has the same issues that you can say about anything these days. It's not like those things didn't exist into a form or another in the past, but it's just so, so much faster these days.

To make a parallel, it's not like disinformation didn't exist in the past, but nowadays with social media, llms and image gen tools and a few armies of bots, you can spread whatever bullshit you want at lightning speed.

[A_D_E_P_T]

It's a confluence of factors, but the really big ones are, IMO, what I mentioned:

- ZIRP and similar policies essentially forced everybody to get into the stock market if they wanted to tread water.

- Then people saw with BTC (and similar, e.g. ETH,) that these so-called "market investments" don't need to be rooted in any kind of fundamental. They can be weightless tokens. This, in short order, lead to silly things like memestocks and NFTs -- but they also twisted the hell out of the markets. The valuation of TSLA has long been an example of this.

Then there's inflation, which has inflated stock market prices as much as it has inflated anything else. And there are toothless regulators who would deserve our sympathy if they weren't so lackadaisical. There are also llms, social media, etc. -- but those feed on the above.