[whazor]

I think you could argue Anthropic could be worth $1T. With AI becoming an essential work utility, every global knowledge worker would want a claude subscription. There are 650M to 1B of such office workers. 300M workers × $50/month × 12 = $180B/year. The genie is not going back into the bottle, I have seen what claude code can do when properly connected to tools.

But Micheals arguments are valid. There could be competition, or even local models, thus indeed becoming 'commoditized'.

[orwin]

What probability do you assign to that, especially since CC harness code leaked?

Because I used frontier models this weekend (I had 78% of my assigned tokens for this month left, I wanted to burn them before June 1st, ended up with 24% left), and tbh, I don't see much of the improvement compared to the models I use day-to-day. I'd rather pay less for a slightly worse model. Stacktrace analysis (or any bug analysis really) is where LLMs have the most success rate imho, and free models are good enough since last year. As for coding/architecture tasks, frontier models seems to hallucinate less, but I wonder if it's the guardrails or the he model themselves.

[sourcecodeplz]

I code 8+ hours days with Deepseek V4 flash and it costs me under $1 per day... I dont know how they will charge so much for a sub.

[alberto467]

Well... $1 a day is not that far from that hypothetical $50 a month though. Especially if it gives you access to significantly more powerful models (which it does).

EDIT: i still find absurd thinking that all those subscription would go to a single company, let me be clear. But that $50 price doesn't sound unreasonable at all.

[dgellow]

> Especially if it gives you access to significantly more powerful models (which it does).

Anthropic and OpenAI are losing lots of money with their subscriptions. They are giving away access to those powerful models for cheap. The Deepseek price is the API price, which is the only sustainable approach here

[jappgar]

Why would we need 1B office workers when Claude is supposed to fire everyone anyways?

[bpt3]

AI is far from becoming an essential work utility, Anthropic will not be used by approximately 100% of the office workers in the developed world, and a price to sales ratio of over 5 for a company that is struggling to become profitable due to high operating expenses seems exceptionally high.

The problem with all these companies is that they are priced as if their training and inference costs are going to come way down, but somehow only for them specifically.

[cyanydeez]

thing is, we have both local models and local hardware and a true evaluation would do a calculation before openai inflated thw market, before nvidia made circular deals and the other distortions. i think youd find the ROI is nowhere near the API rates are the "price support" is entirely a figment of billionaires and their parasites trying to corner the market by horde logistics