[zwarag]

I have yet to see an application outside of harnesses and LLMs itself where adaptation has happened on a larger scale. Devs are fine with babysitting their LLMs. People like to use LLMs to improve their mails and so on. But outside of that, the adaptation is not there yet.

Don't get me wrong. I love LLMs and use them myself. But the biggest gain for me is easier context switch and text manipulation. It's not the: replace X with a bunch of LLMs every CEO is dreaming of. So yes, you have higher productivity, but is the eval of those companies legit? x doubt.

[ijidak]

Markets value future cash flows, not today's cash flows.

By the time you see the applications, the market will have moved on to value the next set of future cash flows.

If the market only valued the obvious, investors would jump in to buy the price up, until it met the average expectations.

The market might be wrong, but the question is not: "Have you yet to see?", but rather, "What do you see in the next three to five years?"

Otherwise, how could investors ever invest in a startup?

Startups never have revenues to justify their initial valuations.

It's a bet on the future.

Investors are future looking.

Consumers are present looking.

We didn't see LLM harnesses coming even two years ago. Now they generate billions per month.

Investors can't wait until reality materializes to make their estimations of the future.

That's why investing is hard.

You have to try to predict the future.

[mullingitover]

> Markets value future cash flows, not today's cash flows.

Sir, this is a casino/Keynesian Beauty Contest.

Markets value what the market participants think the other participants will value. On occasion, this intersects with reality.

[giancarlostoro]

I just gave you several non-dev examples of how AI is used or has achieved things we could only dream about. Not to mention how Qualia is using it within the Real Estate sector.

https://cloud.google.com/customers/qualia

[joquarky]

> Real Estate

Now there's an honest sector that is sure to use these tools to benefit humanity!

[tristanj]

One third of all software code is written by AI. At the frontier AI labs it's 80%+. It has completely upended the software industry. How is that not a massive adaption?

[davemp]

> One third of all software code is written by AI.

I find it interesting that using lines of code as a metric is making a comeback.

[joquarky]

We are devolving due to cronyism. The gold rush has replaced the nerds with brogrammers.

[tristanj]

The number of lines of code doesn't matter any more. A better metric is AI-assisted commits, which has the same statistics.

[rustystump]

I mean if there are more bugs there are more commits no?

[camillomiller]

You couldn’t have picked a better argument to show how this bias is exactly what’s making tech people think this shift is ubiquitous. “It works extremely well for coding, in which I am a domain expert, so why wouldn’t it work for all the other domains I absolutely know nothing about?”

[tristanj]

ChatGPT has 700 million users. What do you think they are using it for? It's upended entire industries.

How many millions of emails do you think are composed using ChatGPT? How many legal briefs were reviewed by AI? How many businesses use AI generated art? How many kids do their homework using ChatGPT?

The GP is arguing that AI has struggled to replace humans, but in so many roles AI is doing the heavy lifting and humans are copying its output.

[FlyingSnake]

Which “entire industries” has ChatGPT upended?

[tristanj]

The entire education industry, so many students ask ChatGPT to help with their homework, and lots pass it off as their own work. Many students have quit going to office hours & tutoring, and ask AI for personalized answers instead. The education industry has no answer, and is struggling to deal with this.

The homework "help" industry (i.e. paying for answers) is dead. Chegg stock fell 99% because of ChatGPT.

Stock photography is rapidly dying, nobody will pay for shutterstock when ChatGPT can generate a passable image for free.

ChatGPT is killing studio photography, it can generate great looking studio photos for free.

Same with basic graphic design / custom art commissions.

SEO / copywriting has been almost fully replaced by AI. Companies no longer pay writers to churn out SEO slop, and now the web is full of AI generated SEO spam.

Customer service as a job is dying and is rapidly being replaced by AI chatbots.

I can go on, but these are the major ones.

[camillomiller]

You have no data to support what you're saying, you sound anecdotical, and on top of these flaws in your argument, you proceed to make a point mentioning "industries" that are neither formally upended, nor at all significant in the great scheme of things in terms of value produced or perceived. I believe the education industry is fundamental and one of the most important industries in the world, but it hardly moves markets, nor is filled with high-paying customers.

On top of that, you are showing another stark bias in considering the US experience as the global experience. It is not, and education in particular works way differently, aka, it's not a business wild west.

Cognitive surrender in writing emails is another shaky ground: do you honestly think that AI's worth the tens of trillion the tech bros are claiming it'll be worth as a glorified email-maker?

I will add that my point still stands. If you say this:

>>ChatGPT is killing studio photography, it can generate great looking studio photos for free. Same with basic graphic design / custom art commissions.

the only point you're proving is that you don't understand shit about photography as a business, nor about design as a business. AI is being rapidly integrated, for sure, but it has not upended those industries, and the average mediocrity it produces (because of its very nature) is not even close to replacing what you claim it is.

[soperj]

It doesn't even work that well for coding.

Otherwise Github wouldn't have 14% down time in the last 3 months.

[jwpapi]

Because it doesn’t work without me

[hypendev]

What is a larger scaler for you? What is "outside harness an LLM"?

What is _the proof_ if all the proofs are not _proofs_?

I don't babysit my LLM based services which are used by coaches and clients around the world. One of my LLM based solution get 30-4k daily hits and I have users coming back on the regular to use it. without babysitting, doing things that would take them hours of manual work and research.

I don't babysit the developers I work with and our clients, which both use LLM's themselves and at scale with their clients, serving all kinds of LLM powered services to millions of users worldwide.

You are not "seeing" the large adoption because:

- The technology is "a few years old" in its usable state - The corporate adoption cycle is slow - You have to understand the technology to use it in a good way, which most corporate devs and PM's do not

So it will take a bit for the "obvious" adaptation on large scale.

But you won't "know" when the large adoption happens.

Silent inference is growing every day, and that is what real adoption looks like - not an LLM being in your face chatbox, but running in the background, sorting, finding, fixing things, aligning data, figuring out analytics, tuning the ads, cleaning the datasets.