[zuzululu]

I don't really see this happening in the way that most people are envisioning. It's clear that Anthropic and OpenAI have found product market fit. They've gotten companies hooked and personally I cannot go back to the old way of coding.

However, I do see a bit of reduced demand for hardware and datacenters which could reprice these companies to more sane multiples. There will be winners and losers.

[c1sc0]

But will you need overpriced Codex and Claude? Most business code is crappy SaaS and glorified CRUD apps & I can build those with Sonnet / DeepSeek just fine …

[rconti]

Have you noticed that some % of devs are totally sold on AI, and others less so? I use it all the time, and I'd say my use is declining now after a fair bit of disillusionment.

It's not hard to imagine a world in which:

* Companies realize they're spending too much on AI, and cut back

* AI companies start raising prices

* Companies cut back on AI usage even more to compensate for the higher prices

* Some individual users use less AI, while others continue to increase their usage

The projected figures rely on EVERYTHING continuing to go up, which it doesn't seem to be.