[JumpCrisscross]

None of this suggests recession for America. We're an energy and defence exporter. That broadly offsets the effects of higher energy prices.

Whether or not America winds up in a recession is going to be entirely a function of AI. That is what the economy is levered on.

[amanaplanacanal]

Being an energy exporter is good for oil companies, but how does it help consumers? Prices are still going up. Interest rates are still going up.

[toomuchtodo]

I agree the US goes full recession as soon as the confidence falls out from under the AI bubble and all of this investment leading to GDP growth ends, but I also don’t believe the US economy (even assuming reduced GDP to energy correlation over the last two decades) can sustain growth and will lead to contraction with oil prices at or above the $150-$200/barrel price band if persistent. The below prediction predicts a near term (July) recession call at less than $100/barrel.

https://finance.yahoo.com/economy/articles/high-oil-prices-c...

https://www.businessinsider.com/us-recession-warning-job-mar...

https://www.aei.org/articles/the-shrinking-economic-weight-o...