[hungryhobbit]

Read history: people always think everything is fine ... until it isn't.

[Karrot_Kream]

This is one of those arguments that is so vacuous you can apply it to anything and always be right.

> "There's no way you'll hurt yourself walking to the living room"

> "Read history: people always think everything is fine ... until it isn't."

[olalonde]

And people are right most of the time. For every actual bubble, there are easily a dozen "bubbles" that aren't in fact bubbles.

[JumpCrisscross]

> people always think everything is fine ... until it isn't

History is also replete with people constantly predicting collapses that don't come. Timing the market is very hard with numbers, it's total nonsense if one is just going off vibes.

[za_creature]

Most bank runs tend to be driven by vibes, not numbers though.

The good news is that these folks seem to be in possession of a vibe-rator.

[JumpCrisscross]

> bank runs

Anthropic, SpaceX and OpenAI are not banks. (Also, we had the largest bank runs in American history three years ago. The ordinary American barely noticed.)

[za_creature]

They're not profitable either, so the money has to come from somewhere, no?

[JumpCrisscross]

> the money has to come from somewhere, no?

Yes. Equity investors. The ones who buy hundreds of billions to trillions of dollars of American stocks a quarter.

[za_creature]

And these equity-investors, do they use their own money to buy the (presumably non-voting) stocks?

Cause if that's the case, I see no reason for a government bailout should things go south. Nobody's pension would be affected by some private investor losing money on a bad investment.

But if that's not the case, then someone somewhere along the chain is acting as a bank, subject to a vibe-driven run.

[aurareturn]

Nasdaq is 5.4x higher now than peak dotcom.

So just buy the dip if it actually crashes.