[lukan]

"Putin was advised that Russian disinfo had worked and Ukrainians would welcome Russian troops as liberators"

And where does your inside info from the Kremlin and Putin's head is coming from?

Putin was raised in the KGB, I think he knows a bit how to get intel. And with secret war style he was very successful in 2014 seizing the Krim and some areas.

It was likely just overconfidence in the ability of the russian army in a conventional war and underestimating the will of the ukrainians to hold their ground in the beginning of the war.

If that battle in the beginning would have turned out different, Kiew would likely have fallen and then the war would have been largely over in a few days

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Battle_of_Antonov_Airport

Not many believed, myself included, that Ukraine was strong enough to hold of the russian army - but they did. And now both sides use Drones heavily.

[jemmyw]

Sergei Beseda chief of the FSB "fifth service" was arrested after the start of the war. https://meduza.io/en/feature/2022/06/20/no-infighting-here is a story I found around it. I guess we can't be definite, but that journalist in Russia was citing sources saying that the service had essentially embezzled money and made up the data about their resources on the ground in Ukraine, and misrepresented polling data they had that Russia would be welcomed by the general population.

[lukan]

"Soldatov argued that decision makers in Moscow had approached the invasion as a police operation, not a military campaign, because they believed the Ukrainians would actually welcome Russian forces."

" a Moscow FSB agent once tried to convince him not to investigate the October 2002 Moscow theater hostage siege"

Ok, so the source is one russian journalist who was known at least since 2002 to the FSB as someone to keep away from inner sanctum information. It is something, but I doubt he got really access.

[mopsi]

Andrei Soldatov is not merely "one russian journalist". Since 2000, he has been operating agentura.ru, which publishes information about Russian security services. He is well-connected and widely considered one of the most serious independent experts on the Russian security apparatus.

[lukan]

But he is not in russia anymore since a while. I doubt his ability to get insights into the highest ranks of security let alone Putin's head himself.

[notaigenerated]

> And where does your inside info from the Kremlin and Putin's head is coming from?

It's coming from the fact that troops approaching Kyiv were supplied with 3 day rations and full dress uniforms, ready to hold a parade in Kyiv. It's also coming from US intelligence (https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/interactive/2022/russia...). And on top of that, russian propaganda literally repeated times and times again that this war will last for 3-4 days.

> Putin was raised in the KGB, I think he knows a bit how to get intel

Are you saying he planned for 5 years of war and russian economy being destroyed and also planned for over a million casualties for his army?

> underestimating the will of the ukrainians to hold their ground in the beginning of the war

There you go, you just said it yourself. That's the "insight".

[lukan]

I debated the claim that Putin believed he will be cheered on by majority of Ukrainians after conquering their army quickly.

I don't believe he had much illusions there, but he surely believed he will win in 3 days.

[sofixa]

Nope. Even if you don't trust the reporting and information coming out of Russia, it's pretty self-evident that Russia thought they won't have much of a war to fight. Half of the attack on Kyiv was done by Rosgvardia (riot police), with parade gear and musical instruments in their logistics.

You don't do that if you think you'll have a quick victory, you do that if you're certain there will barely be any war.