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by pingou 23 days ago
I suspect the plan was (and still is) to weaken authorities in Iran so that the people take over. Or have the Iranian government reach a deal that would be less favorable to them.

A plan with quite long odds you could rightly say, but not as stupid as subduing them by invading them I suppose.

6 comments

It would help if the US didn't ignore the actual protests in Iran and haven't let the Iranian regime slaughter the protesters in hundreds or even thousands.
It was even worse than that - the US leader actively encouraged the protests, only to forget about them once the slaughter began.

"Iranian Patriots, keep protesting – take over your institutions!!! ... help is on its way", said Trump. And then... nothing. They could have provided money, weapons, intelligence, support of all kinds but instead chose to let their potential allies be slaughtered.

Similarly, the US facilitated the dismantling of Rojava, the Kurdish polity in North-Eastern Syria. The Kurds had been led to believe that they'd be able to retain some form of semi-autonomy, but the US pulled the rug from them at the last possible moment. And then, er, wondered why their cousins in Iran weren't willing to rise up against the government there.

It's almost as if they spent the whole of January putting themselves into the worst possible position for achieving their war aims. What did they hope to achieve by sabotaging themselves in that way?

It still sounds like a dumb plan, especially since part of it was the plan to put a hereditary king as new ruler in place - a king that lived outside of Iran the whole time.

And per analysis I heard in French media from Iranian opposition understood the war as a war of destruction, not as a war of liberation. As they continued to be executed daily by the regime.

Meanwhile one of multiple explicit day 1 plans was a plan to negotiate with successor within the regime - recreate the Venezuela situation where you keep the regime, keep its tortures, but put head more willing to give up oil on its head.

Who is the people, as opposed to who is in charge now?
Trump explicitly stated that was his aim, for the people to rise up after Trump did a little long distance assassination. The plan is far more stupid than subduing Iran by invasion.

"At 2:30 a.m. EST on 28 February, Donald Trump released an eight-minute video statement on Truth Social, saying that the purpose of the US strikes in Iran was effectively[vague] regime change."

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2026_Iran_war#Hostilities

He also said it was about The Bomb and nothing else. And that regime change has been achieved. And that the war is already over. Why do you feel the need to defend this stupidity?

There’s only one group of people dumber than US politicians and that’s the American people who support them.

Not saying this is a smart plan, but how is it far more stupid than invading Iran which is basically impossible unless you are ready for tens or hundred of thousands of casualties among your own citizens?
What about not ending a thoroughly negotiated JCPOA just because it was one of Obama’s achievements?

Who will ever trust the US enough to negotiate in earnest?

For the third time I never said it was a good plan.
US govt would've been propping someone else to take over if they were serious about that plan
After all this, you still believe there’s a plan? At what age did you give up on Santa Claus?