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by tristanj
12 days ago
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I'll mention the ones no one else is talking about. The Golden Dome buildout will deliver $200-300 billion in revenue to SpaceX through 2040 https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Golden_Dome_(missile_defense_s... . Golden Dome is only viable with low-cost Starship, and SpaceX will build the satellites housing the radars, IR detectors, interceptors, and backbone communications network. The interceptors themselves will likely be built by existing players i.e. Lockheed Martin and Raytheon. SpaceX revenue here is astronomical, potentially $500+ billion if a full buildout occurs. Starlink Mobile is atrociously underestimated, with Starlink V3/V4 satellites and the $17 billion Echostar spectrum, Starlink will deliver 4G speeds direct to cellphone for thousands of customers per cell across the globe. It will never match the bandwidth throughput of terrestrial towers but will be extremely cost competitive in rural areas. A single cellular tower costs ~$250k to build and tens of thousands per year to maintain. It will be far cheaper for mobile operators to partner with SpaceX than do their own costly buildout. Assuming quick adoption, revenue will be $50-100 billion per year by 2040, with high margins. Not to mention Starship, which in its incomplete form of V3 already has the lowest cost-to-orbit of any launch vehicle ever, will usher in a wave of space exploration. The moat is huge, Starship is 15 years ahead of the competition. |
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