[kergonath]

The US are incapable of finishing the job. That's what they tried to do in Iraq and look how it turned out. Iran is much more organised, has a competent secret police, is huge and better armed than Iraq was. It's physically impossible to carpet bomb the country like Israel is trying to do to Lebanon, so whatever you do you can be sure that there will be plenty of armed partisans. If the central power disintegrates, there will be a mess of Kurdish forces, the remains of governmental armies, and you can expect other interesting groups to show up along the borders with Iraq and Afghanistan. Even if the US were lead by competent people with a decent strategy it would be worse than a long shot. And they are not.

They are also incapable of forming a coalition. They pushed the Saudis and all the Gulf states, who hate Iran with a passion to the moderate "maybe starting a war was not such a good idea" camp. The latest noises about forcing them to make friends with Israel is exactly what you would do if you wanted to be absolutely sure that they will never help you. The noises about annexing Greenland and Canada made sure that nobody in Europe is going to be part of any coalition there willingly.

That's what happens when you take stupid decisions on your own because you're a big bully boy and allies are for chumps.

[drnick1]

Destroying what remains of their missiles and drones and forcibly reopening the straits is absolutely possible. Estimates vary, but so far about 50% of their offensive capabilities seem to have been destroyed. Continue combat operations and destroy the rest. Escort ships trapped in the Gulf out. Maintain the blockade on Iranian ports to apply maximum economic pressure on the theocracy. I don't care about the internal politics of Iran. If the country descends into chaos or civil war, so be it. Hopefully, this may result in a collapse of the so called Islamic Republic. It is for the Iranians to decide what government they want, so long as it does not interfere with global and in particular U.S. interests.

[joxdosba]

Iran going like Syria would certainly interfere with US and global interests.

[kergonath]

> Destroying what remains of their missiles and drones and forcibly reopening the straits is absolutely possible.

They don’t need missiles to keep the Gulf pretty much closed, they just need drones. They have what, 1000 km of coast line with convenient mountains nearby? The choke point is 30 km wide, you don’t need more than shaheeds to prevent enough ships from sailing through that the others either stop trying or pay.

And you won’t prevent rockets or drones from reaching that coast line unless you have absolute control over the interior. Look at how much trouble Israel has with getting rid of rockets in the Gaza Strip.

> Continue combat operations and destroy the rest.

Afghanistan and Iraq demonstrate that it is much easier said than done.

> Escort ships trapped in the Gulf out.

That is going to be very impractical as long as they can just send marine, submarine, or aerial drones. Not unfeasible, but very difficult. The Huthis are still making trouble in the Red Sea, and there is an actual coalition to deal wit them there. Being locals with this kind of terrain is a massive advantage. There is a reason why anybody sane was saying that it was a stupid strategy.

> Maintain the blockade on Iranian ports to apply maximum economic pressure on the theocracy.

Which also applies maximum pressure on most of the world. That will become untenable quickly. Of course, the Russians are happy, though.

> I don't care about the internal politics of Iran.

You cannot solve a problem if you don’t understand it and the situation that caused it. Bush thought he could and he was wrong. Trump thinks he can and he is deluded.

> this may result in a collapse of the so called Islamic Republic

And I thought you guys were against regime change and forever wars. In the real world, it caused a rally-around-the-flat effect and a hardening of the government’s position and its grip on the country. I hope the Iranians can get out of this nightmare at some point, but it is not a given, and it is not the strategy most likely to lead to that outcome.

> so long as it does not interfere with global and in particular U.S. interests

lol. The US serve only the oligarch class’ interest. If you are serious about that, fix your government. It might not be as dire as the Islamic republic, but it is disintegrating.