| "You just don't understand bro" has been the trite handwaving of criticism for a over decade now. It already wore out when the bitcoin bros kept saying it to all their critics. > I can tell you are in the unaware group, since you don't mention nor analyze two of SpaceX's world-changing products (Starship and Starlink Mobile). Just because I did not mention Starship by name does not mean it's not in the reply. And Starlink Mobile is still an ISP. "It's worth a trillion dollars because it's mobile!" Haven't heard that one since the Dotcom bubble. But more to the point: > Meanwhile, people who understand SpaceX's product line, and the implications these products in five or ten years, can analyze the situation more accurately. They are looking 10 years forwards. I am looking 10 years back. This exact same "just you wait, in 5 years there'll be a miracle technology that generates infinite profit" rhetoric has been used for those 10 years. Still waiting on the miracle self-driving that was supposed to justify Tesla's $1.6 trillion. |
And that's your flaw. Companies are priced by looking ahead and projecting future revenue and earnings, not by looking 10 years into past. Your analysis is fundamentally flawed for this reason. Neither of SpaceX's major future revenue drivers (Starship and Starlink) existed a decade ago. This explains your confusion regarding SpaceX's valuation.