[nogajun]

As a result of the Takaichi administration directing subsidies exclusively toward gasoline, oil companies have stopped prioritizing naphtha production, leading to a shortage of daily necessities. The fact that Calbee’s snack packaging has turned monochrome is a direct consequence of this. The Takaichi administration attempted to pressure Calbee into reversing this decision.

What is even more alarming is that more than half of the Japanese public supports the Takaichi administration, which is implementing such absurd policies.

[tzs]

Google is telling me that there were production drops in 2025, but it was (1) due to an oversupply caused by Japanese ethylene and benzene exports fell due new plants in China and an increase in cheaper exports from the US to Asian markets, and (2) domestic gasoline consumption dropping.

Everything I can find says the shortages now are due to the Iran war.

[alephnerd]

> As a result of the Takaichi administration directing subsidies exclusively toward gasoline, oil companies have stopped prioritizing naphtha production

Not exactly. Japan only produces around 40% of it's naphtha domestically, with 40% from the Middle East and the other 20% from other sources. Much of the pain arose from supply shock for the 40% sources from the ME.

That said, much of the pain around naphata is transitional, as most Japanese imports of naphtha have now shifted away from the Middle East to Algeria, the US, and India [0][1].

Mind you, this is eating significantly into margins, but it is survivable as this isn't Japan's first black swan event of similar calibre - the late 2000s and early 2010s oil price shock occurred during a much more difficult macro environment for Japan, and at least according to ONG analysts [2] (behind login, as most actionable commodities news is) Japan has the reserves needed for around a year of production assuming Japan didn't begin shifting sourcing, which it did.

I'd recommend reading Overseas Energy Investment of Korea and Japan: How did Two East Asian Resources-Rare Industrial Giants Respond to Energy Security Challenges by Oh Seong-ik [3] to learn more about the Korean and Japanese energy security policy - both are using the same methodology, strategies, and contract structures, and despite public rhetoric, a large portion of younger Koreans targeting the Blue House and/or high finance still try to attend Waseda for their undergrad if SKY, KAIST, or Ewha doesn't work out.

[0] - https://asia.nikkei.com/spotlight/iran-tensions/iran-war/jap...

[1] - https://www.argusmedia.com/en/news-and-insights/latest-marke...

[2] - https://direct.argusmedia.com/newsandanalysis/article/280064...

[3] - https://link.springer.com/book/10.1007/978-981-99-0285-9

[Tor3]

The situation may stabilize over time as Japan gradually manages to shift sources. However, the situation has been and is serious, the Calbee issue isn't really what matters of course. As someone who's currently in the process of building a new house, I'm in constant touch with my construction company, and they tell me that there are tons of procurement problems because of the naphta shortage. Some companies have stopped taking orders altogether. We're lucky in that our construction company managed to secure what we need just in time, those just a couple of weeks after us have problems. We are mostly fine, except for some stuff, which, while important, can be handled. Or delayed, at least.

[alephnerd]

Absolutely, it is serious and will take months to stabilize, but this isn't the first nor the last shock like this that will arise.

The 2022 Russia-Ukraine War led to a temporary shock like this as did the Iraqi Civil War and the subsequent surge in the late 2000s and early 2010s.

Life is filled with black swans and it truly sucks at the individual level, but at the macro-level this is transitionary.

Also, for the Japanese government, the housing pain is less worrisome than it's downstream impact on cracking.

[thrownthatway]

> is less worrisome than it's downstream impact on cracking.

What does cracking mean in this context?

[timschmidt]

I'm not op, but he's probably referring to: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cracking_(chemistry)

[pibaker]

> The Takaichi administration attempted to pressure Calbee into reversing this decision.

Do you have a citation for this? This sounds insane. I can't even think of any good faith motivation for doing this, other than to cover up the shortage and to keep the public pacified.

[flakiness]

> https://www.asahi.com/articles/ASV5N32MVV5NUTFK005M.html

The title reads "PM's Office calls Calbee's response a "stunt"; Emphasizes naphtha sufficiency, including intermediate products".

Asahi Shinbun is one of the established newspapers.

Also at the end (translated by google):

> "The government interviewed Calbee about the situation on the 12th. According to a government official, they explained to Calbee that there is a sufficient amount available in terms of total volume. Sources close to the Prime Minister expressed concern over the ripple effects, stating, "Calbee's reaction is an overreaction. Their announcement will cause other companies to become anxious as well." However, Calbee maintains its stance, with a public relations representative stating, "This is a measure to ensure the stable supply of our products."

So it's relatively mild "nudge", if you compare it to the current US administration.

[amake]

> I can't even think of any good faith motivation for doing this, other than to cover up the shortage and to keep the public pacified

Yes

[pjjpo]

I can think of one - Calbee is taking advantage of the situation to get massive, free TV time. On top of that, their product will be cheaper to make. In terms of a marketing coup, this is probably one of the greatest examples. No other package manufacturer has announced a similar ink shortage, so...

In half a year, maybe, but I and many I talk to are skeptical their huge scale supply chain is running out of printing material in such a short amount of time. I'm voting with my yen by not buying Calbee products for now.

[expedition32]

What is more alarming is that the American public is completely silent on their mad Emperor's antics.

This all started in the White House and we must never let them get away with it.

[0x59]

Why do Americans have to worry about the packaging of Japanese snack products? S&P is up 10.5% YTD

[Suppafly]

>Why do Americans have to worry about the packaging of Japanese snack products?

We don't but we worry about similar issues caused by the same root cause.

[HDThoreaun]

How much naphtha is used to color a bag of chips? I figured it was like considerably less than a milliliter. Is that really a significant cost even if naptha prices 10x?

[rtpg]

It sounds like this isn't a cost problem but a supply problem. At one point a 20% reduction in inputs has to affect some output.

[taneq]

Guess they'll have to use a smaller font.