Hacker News new | ask | show | jobs
by dumbmrblah 26 days ago
But he avoids SpaceX and Tesla, which I think is probably the driving factor in not using QQQ. Maybe he values that more than $500
3 comments

If that was his genuine concern, then instead of trying to balance a portfolio of 103 stocks... you simply buy QQQ and short Tesla at 3.53% worth of your QQQ holdings.
You pay interest when you short stock.

And if we want to talk about "bad financial advice", I think telling people to try and time the market with a short is considerably worse than "buy the same shares that QQQ does".

You pay interest on the margin you put up for shorts net profits from the position itself and cash or other assets you place inside investment accounts. You're also usually being charged interest at only a few basis points above the RFRR so this isn't "interest" in the sense of a loan.

> I think telling people to try and time the market with a short is considerably worse

Nobody is trying to time the market. If you want QQQ but don't want the Tesla exposure in it, it's a lot cheaper net to simply hedge against your Tesla exposure with a short position counteracting your long position. If you're worried about margin rates interfering with your profits, you can model all of these and come up with the optimal short needed to hedge your risk. This is standard financial practice.

Shorting doesn't have anything to do with timing the market, the reason why pop investing communities think that shorting and timing the market are synonymous is because as a whole asset prices are expected to keep pace with the RFRR assuming they at least hold their value, so taking a short position is going against the "default" market direction.

The GP did not try to time the market. He suggested a sensible strategy to exclude a tiny subset from an index (less expensive than maintaing the alternative index yourself).
Its not timing the market if it is exactly offset by the position in the etf
Yeah, I guess this entire thread has been an inadvertent exercise in Cunningham's Law, and maybe Dunning Kruger as well.

I thought I understood this stuff more than I actually do. Guess I have some stuff to learn over the weekend!

I'm unsure what SpaceX's weighting would be in QQQ but with Tesla being <3.54% weighting it would take both companies being 0s within a year to offset the cost in taxes from reweighting...
Everyone keeps saying this but I'm a little confused; you're still paying the reweighting taxes with QQQ, it's just rolled into the management fees.
Yeah I just looked it up myself. I was wrong; taxes are definitely more efficient with ETFs.

Now this idea is sounding pretty stupid. Damn.

tombert should instead long QQQ and short the bits they don't like
You pay interest on shorting, and it requires trying to time the market, which people are famously bad at doing.