[zozbot234]

> It is possible to have excess productivity.

The most productive places in the world are also those with the highest incomes and wealth generation. "Excess productivity" is either temporary or a sector-specific phenomenon, it doesn't apply to society as a whole.

[dleslie]

This is true; and in time it's entirely possible that AI makes us an overall wealthier and more productive society. However, from the article:

> “Most economists will acknowledge that technological progress can cause some adjustment problems in the short run. What is rarely noted is that the short run can be a lifetime.”

The redundant professionals will need to find other ways of generating wealth from their productivity, and that may not be possible in a reasonable amount of time. Not in the scope of their remaining lifetime.

[zozbot234]

We will most likely redefine what we mean by human "productivity". A plumber might be considered a highly productive worker, whereas many intellectual professions will partially refocus on effectively prompting AI and assessing/revising its output.

[kelnos]

Sure, but that redefinition, retraining, and reallocation process could take a lifetime. Sucks to be the people who are unable to adapt in that time.

[ThrowawayR2]

Temporary excess productivity can linger a very long time and sector-specific excess productivity can still be broadly damaging. Detroit and southeastern Michigan were devastated by the collapse of American automotive industry in the '00s, taking something like 10-15 years before starting to recover.

[hunterpayne]

That collapse happened in the late 1970s. And many would debate if its recovered to this day.

[ThrowawayR2]

Michigan was doing okay until around the late 1990s. The real downslide started out after that; Detroit became the largest municipal bankruptcy in U.S. history in 2013.