[onlyrealcuzzo]

> But that isn't what it is anymore, it's a dumping ground.

We got "dumped" Google and Facebook, so... Those probably made up for all the other "dumps".

We also got "dumped" TSLA, which is meme-ing in the trillions at the moment.

You can short Anthropic at IPO if you want...

[halamadrid]

Looking back it feels like GOOG, FB, TSLA etc. all went IPO at reasonable valuations. Retail & public investors did benefit long term and continuing to get higher valuations in public is not a small feat compared to a VC valuation.

A trillion dollar valuation seemed so hard back in the day and now there are so many companies in that list. What's the next level?

Is this just signs that $ is no longer the inflating at the same rate over time and its the realistic inflation that is reflecting in the stock market?

Prices of all goods surely has to follow to make up for the revenue needed to sustain these valuations and also the salaries to sustain the prices.

Unfortunately, those who are not in the loop is not going to have a good time.

[senko]

> Looking back it feels like GOOG, FB, TSLA etc. all went IPO at reasonable valuations

Yeah, looking back. At the time, I distinctly remember people were going batshit over the insane FB valuation. It wasn't at all obvious it was justified.

Hindsight is 20/20.

[HDThoreaun]

I remember a ton of people talking about how FB ipo'd at way too high a valuation. Just checked and it opened at $38 and was $19 3 months later

[DanielHB]

I think this is usually the case for most IPOs, insiders cash out, index-funds buy in. Basically it is a one-time technique for investors to extract money from pensions.

If you try to configure the index-fund to avoid this problem it is not longer passively managed as each new stock needs to be evaluated in a (at least) semi-subjective manner.

[epolanski]

Facebook has been reasonable only in hindsight.

IPO was in the 50B $ valuation range, and at the time, there wasn't any hint it made any financial sense.

Of course, hindsight is hindsight, but for every Facebook there's been countless IPOs of tech companies shrinking their IPO valuations by 90% in the following years.

[ml_basics]

maybe we will look back and also think that the current slate of IPOs were reasonable valuations?

[lumost]

The critical view is that these IPOs are bumping up against physics. How many trillion dollar companies can the economy support? The US GDP is roughly 32 Trillion. A company with 100 billion dollars in revenue and 10x annual growth would be expected to increase the size of the economy by 3.2% in its first year, and about 30% in it's second year post IPO existing.

While we could claim that such a company can grow by consuming a larger share of the GDP ... this would not bode well for future political stability, and nationalization would be a major topic.

So your left with a fast take off scenario, a job apocalypse, or a massively reduced growth rate.

[fittingopposite]

Wait for more inflation. See https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hyperinflation_in_the_Weimar_R...

[adammarples]

If Anthropic has anything line that level of success, it will also be at the expense of huge unemployment, because Claude is really competing with knowledge work

[NewJazz]

Google IPO 20 years ago, Tesla 15 years ago, facebook almost 15 years ago.

Situations change.

[icedchai]

"This time it's different", right?

[onlyrealcuzzo]

When did they change? 3 years and 4 months ago? 1 year ago? 8 years?

Because when Facebook IPO'd everyone was saying the stock market was a dumping ground...

Same with Google...

Same with Pets.com and WebVan...

[pixelatedindex]

Sometimes when things change in an insidious manner, it’s hard to point out _when_ the decline started.

[Npovview]

Few Pheonix(s) rise from the ashes of many Unicorns.

[signatoremo]

Maybe but can you elaborate what the changes are?

[surgical_fire]

Or he can just steer clear of the eventual Anthropic stock. Shorting is not the only strategy available to avoid losing money.

But you, of course, can buy on their IPO. They need every bagholder they can get :)