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by neural_thing
23 days ago
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OK so let's say build out this year is $900b. Depreciated over, IDK, 6 years (mix of 3 year GPUs and 20 year buildings)? That's $150B a year, but you want the investment to be profitable, so let's call it $250B a year. That seems... Pretty reasonable? Like Anthropic is at $45B annual revenue, let's say they enter next year with $100B annual revenue? Let's say they have 30% gross margins (no idea), so $70B goes to data center owners/operators. That's one company doing roughly 1/3rd of what's required to pay the investments off. And you have Ant+OAI+GDM+Internal AI at GOOGL/META/etc.+all the servers for open models. I'm sure there's a world where you can paint a picture that requires $5-10T but that would require capex increasing significantly NEXT year. And the cloud companies won't do that unless revenue keeps growing. |
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There's a ton of speculation that all major labs are losing tons of money, so I that 30% gross margin sounds more like -30% to -130% gross margin.