[ph0rque]

>> We've done this five times now, and we've seen a bunch of startups die. About 10 of them so far.

So, not counting this batch (19), 10 out of 39 [1] startups died so far. So, the survival rate is 72%. Not bad! I know that some more YC companies might die at some point in the future, but the numbers so far seem impressive.

[1] The following article quotes 58 companies funded in all: http://dondodge.typepad.com/the_next_big_thing/2007/08/paul-...

[pg]

There are several more that seem moribund, but we give them the benefit of the doubt, because there have been cases of startups coming back from the dead.

There were 38 before this batch, 20 new ones this summer, 1 of which immediately merged with a startup from a previous round = 19 in Cambridge.

[gms]

I don't think 72% is particularly good (I think it should be higher). I'm not sure you realise just how scary the thought of failing in front of so many hard-working people is...

[SwellJoe]

"I'm not sure you realise just how scary the thought of failing in front of so many hard-working people is..."

Failure has a different meaning in Silicon Valley (kind of). There have been a couple of quiet fizzle outs from WFP that I'm sure of, and I've spoken to two of the guys from those fizzle outs since then...one is working on new ideas, and another has moved to another company (perhaps the most flexible of the bunch, in that they changed their entire business model and started from scratch during the program) from the same program that raised some money and he's happy and enthusiastic. While there is a bit of averting of the gaze when I asked how things were going, the fact that they were there at a YC event and talking about new things tells me they will probably go on to great things.

It's the folks who went back home, went back to consulting or school, who aren't going to be among the winners in the end. Which comes back to pg's assertion that just by staying in touch and staying involved you could very well guarantee success...I'm not sure if it's the cause or the effect, but I do think the folks who've stuck around and keep coming to the events and keep in touch with other YC'ers will probably do well.

[ph0rque]

I think it's certainly better then when you hear about a 10% survival rate for startups, as stereotypical as that is. But you're right, it could be better. PG mentions a 90% survival rate is possible.

[timr]

Yes, but the 10% figure is quoted for startups who don't have the advantage of YC's network and PR status.

Perhaps that's an obvious point, but I think it's an important one.