[aspenmartin]

If that were it I would absolutely agree with you. But this experience maps exactly to adoption trends. My job in the last 6 months has become so unrecognizeable to me it’s insane, the adoption at the very least at large companies is truly truly incredible, and it really does coincide with the quality of opus 4.5 (which has now been surpassed).

[ModernMech]

"Adoption trends" are just herd behavior which may or may not be driven by compelling anecdotes and may or may not be evidence of something more. I'm just saying it seems wrong to dismiss the post the way you did when the OP in question and your own post here are just more anecdotes.

[aspenmartin]

No, if that were really true you wouldn’t see what you’re seeing today. You wouldn’t see entire companies completely retooled and refactored around these tools. You would see the mistake of “this is actually just herd behavior”, which involves such a colossal amount of impact to these companies entire stack and bottom line, resulting in systemic collapse. You don’t see that. Company leadership are not some idiot class of people, I don’t know why this is people’s prior. If companies get adoption wrong in either direction they are completely screwed. So you’re seeing people putting money where their mouth is, across the board.

Compelling anecdotes are not even the main source of evidence. Look at the enormous body of work on measurement of these systems. I always point people to epoch capability index as a good summary statistic of capabilities or METRs time horizon data which has now been topped out. They had a recent updated to the dataset, after which the corrected plots pointed to an even faster acceleration than before.

[ModernMech]

> You wouldn’t see entire companies completely retooled and refactored around these tools.

That's exactly what I'd expect people who are driven by hype and FOMO and YOLO and anecdotal evidence to do.

> resulting in systemic collapse.

Many people are noting the system is collapsing. Maybe it's not going as quickly as you expect, but there's definitely evidence of this from increased service outage frequency, billion dollar notes being passed in a circle between companies, open projects refusing AI contributions entirely because they're overwhelmed by crap, Sam Altman begging governments to force citizens to buy their product through "universal basic compute", etc.

> Look at the enormous body of work on measurement of these systems.

It's certainly possible to measure anything. Benchmarks are a form of evidence but they famously a) don't represent reality and b) can be easily gamed.

[aspenmartin]

> That's exactly what I'd expect people who are driven by hype and FOMO and YOLO and anecdotal evidence to do.

Not at this scale.

> Many people are noting the system is collapsing.

On HN? any piece of evidence to support this? service outage frequency is not a sign of systemic collapse. billion dollar notes passed in a circle is brought up a lot and misunderstands how finance works. "open projects refusing AI contributions entirely because they're overwhelmed by crap" is not a systemic collapse, its not being able to adapt to a new world with new challenges. Btw "slop" is getting less and less sloppy.

> Sam Altman begging governments to force citizens to buy their product through "universal basic compute", etc.

Very interested in some citation detail that sounds like a headline quote of something more complex.

> It's certainly possible to measure anything. Benchmarks are a form of evidence but they famously a) don't represent reality and b) can be easily gamed.

I mean I work on benchmarks for a living I can tell you both of these things are true but only partially, and in aggregate they all tell a consistent story. Not to mention, static OSS benchmarks are not what these companies rely on. They have live traffic, ability to run A/B tests, full conversation traces, to ignore this is pretty incredible.