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by efitz 23 days ago
I’m completely failing to get outraged here.

I think that the person misused Google internal information and deserves termination or other discipline, but I’m struggling to otherwise see the harm in what they did. Is insider trading a crime on prediction markets? Doesn’t it contribute to the accuracy of the pricing of prediction contracts, and therefore is good for the prediction market?
2 comments
tsimionescu 23 days ago
> Is insider trading a crime on prediction markets?

Yes, it is both against the CFTC's regulations and against the companies' T&Cs.

> Doesn’t it contribute to the accuracy of the pricing of prediction contracts, and therefore is good for the prediction market?

That's irrelevant, the purpose of these markets is to provide fair bets for entertainment, not information.

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efitz 22 days ago
> the purpose of these markets is to provide fair bets for entertainment

Pretty sure this statement is 100% wrong. You’re describing a gambling site. Is that how governments are treating them?

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lmm 23 days ago
> against the companies' T&Cs

Not a crime, or certainly shouldn't be.

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lesuorac 23 days ago
Not criminal but fraud is still a crime.

But also I don't think the T&C's came into play here. This is strictly his employer (Google) told him to keep this information confidential and he didn't and instead profited from it.

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speed_spread 23 days ago
By entertainment I assume you mean money laundering?
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epolanski 23 days ago 

  I’m completely failing to get outraged here.

  I think that the person that a/b/c deserves prison or other discipline, but I’m struggling to otherwise see the harm in what they did. Is insider trading a crime on prediction markets? Doesn’t it contribute to the accuracy of the pricing of prediction contracts, and therefore is good for the prediction market?
a. started fires in California

b. lobbied the president to attack Iran

c. neglected critical aid spreading Ebola

By the way there are reasons why we ban sport people from betting or insiders to disclose their (and relatives) trades to the sec: incentives.

It seems like the prediction market crowd cannot understand the economics of incentives and their harmful consequences.

Even though we already see the harm in the real world with journalists receiving death threats for reporting news or randoms tampering with meteorological equipment to win bets.

And that's only what we know.

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