[mindslight]

Let's try some 4-D chess. What is the overall plan here? Open up multiple wars-of-choice to settle decades old vendettas held by aging boomers, deplete the United States' stockpile of weapons, close up the suitcase operation when the People finally get wise to the treachery, and then abscond to China where they already call Trump the "Nation Builder" ? Meanwhile Big Tech is hoping their panopticon and AI drones will be complete enough that they can keep the People under control as what remains of the sidelined government continues burning, ushering in their desired corpo-authoritarian society?

[pram]

Everything I have seen seems like Trump was really expecting Iran to be a “3 day special operation” so the humiliating boondoggle and stand-off/interceptor etc depletion wasn’t part of the 4D chess. They probably expected Cuba would already be “done” at this point.

[fakedang]

Someone formerly in intelligence told me that the plan in Iran seemingly was to coordinate the protests with strikes on vital government and military installations as a "humanitarian intervention", but the timing went off badly because they didn't expect the protests to get crushed so quickly and lose steam. But they decided to go ahead in the boondoggle anyways, on Israeli insistence.

[quantified]

Not paying attention to the fact that the most fearless and motivated protesters had just been killed.

[caymanjim]

Do you honestly think there's a plan?

[nacozarina]

If the US is mired in its own domestic unrest and military misadventures in the Americas, it will be unable to intervene effectively in conflicts in Europe or Asia.

[quantified]

Imagine being the next president inheriting this dumpster fire. I always thought Obama was handed a poisoned chalice. This will be insane.

[openuntil3am]

> the next president

I appreciate your optimism.

[oneneptune]

This is presuming the next president isn't supportive of these policies and a continuation of the policy.

[quantified]

I'm thinking that even then, they'll be a bit smarter and realize that this is a lot to handle. Won't be starting from as good of a base.

[AuthAuth]

It really does need to be someone who has been in the political game their whole life. It cannot be another inexperienced populist.

[kisper]

Along these lines, it seems too much hope for... but we need a president that can respectfully dialogue with people on the other side of the aisle and empathize with people and their views gained from lived experience. These days the status quo is to treat any opposition to their point of view as sign of idiocy or moral corruption.

[AuthAuth]

Absolutely not. The otherside have shown their colors. They need to be completely ignored and shutdown of power so adults can focus on running the country.

[nirui]

> and then abscond to China

I'm a Chinese, from what I learned, you probably don't see the situation clearly.

The problem is influence. America wants to solve the Cuba (and Iran) problem since very long ago, and right now, while China is busy patching up their economic slop/mismanagement and Russia is trapped in Ukraine, is simply the best time to do so.

With Cuba is cleared out, the Americas continent will be cleared of major (and loud) threats against America. That alone is beneficial.

It's the same but opposite reason why America is supporting Japan, Taiwan and Europe etc, to control the influence of their competitors like China, Russia, India, Brazil etc (a.k.a Global South). It also allow Americans to keep a tap on Japan, Taiwan and Europe (etc) so they remains in American control.

That's probably the 4-D chess you talked about.

Also, the "Trump the 'Nation Builder'" part: In China, "Nation Builder" was a popular forename, it means "someone who contributes to their own country/nation". In the Trump context, it means that Trump's policies is benefiting China's goal. That is, when compare to Biden's policy which is much sophisticated and on point (while Trump's is blunt and wasteful).

But I don't think American's soft gesture towards China will last after Cuba and Iran is dealt with (if) in a American victory though. Unlike what the "New World Order" conspiracy suggests, I don't think this world is stupid enough to not to pursue the maximums goal when possible. That's probably why Americans are working towards the maximums goal inches by inches.

[tzs]

There is no "Cuba problem" that needs to be solved.

[kcplate]

How many cuban ex-pats do you know? I would say “not many”.

Every cuban ex-pat I know (and thats quite a lot because I live in FL) will tell you there is a Cuba problem. They all still have family suffering under that regime.

[tzs]

Let me rephrase. The is no "Cuba problem" that the US needs to deal with any differently than it deals with/has dealt with the many other countries in the Americas that have/had people suffering under their regimes who had family in the US.

As far as Cuba in particular goes, the suffering there would be a lot less if the US would drop its 65+ year old embargo and let them trade like all the other repressive regimes it is indifferent to.

[kcplate]

Most of them don't have a history of direct hostility towards the US and specifically having the willingness to allow a US foe to use their proximity to plant tactical weapons to threaten the US.

Bit of a difference…

[tzs]

That was in 1962, nearly 44 years ago, and it was after the US had tried to invade Cuba.

[tim-tday]

Taiwan. That’s the reason these little low value wars and erosion of soft power are ill timed, ill considered and ultimately supremely destructive to our relevance and influence in the world.

But, good news for China!

[pstuart]

I think they expect a repeat of Venezuela, which was a tidy operation for what it was (and something I highly disapprove of). But even though these operations are done in the name of "regime change", it's just about giving Trump the opportunity to cosplay as a warrior and to further distract from the dumpster fire of his administration.

[ajross]

It was a coup, not an "operation". We provided assistance to a domestic takeover. The only Venezuelan forces acting in opposition were the ones who didn't get the orders to stand down in time.

[pstuart]

Potato, potato. The administration said words about stuff it did and the reasons for it, and then there's the stuff that happenend for the reasons they happened.

It was about scratching an itch, not "spreading democracy".

Considering the US history of meddling south of the border, it was pretty low key. Fucked up, but low key.

[ajross]

The administration 100% did not say what happened, not correctly. The position of the Trump administration is that the US invaded and conquered the country and now runs it and is extracting its resources for our profit. None of that is remotely true. It's run by the same bureaucracy with a junta at the head of it that happens to be aligned with Trump geopolitically.

[pstuart]

My only point was that the admin did whatever they did and, at least from the outside, appears to have been an "in and out" one-shot that worked in their favor.

And the only reason I mentioned that, is because invading a sovereign nation is a significant event and it would be safe to assume that they are emboldened by the success of their prior effort and think that Cuba may be a cookie-cutter repeat of that.

tl;dr -- Venezuela was easy peasy, so how hard can Cuba be?

The legality, morality, and value of this are separate matters (but I bet you can guess where I sand on them).

[mindslight]

Venezuela was literally the only thing Trump has done that made me sick with a feeling of "this is going to be well received by most people". (Distinct from the feeling that something should be poorly received, but then seeing the useful idiots lap it up anyway. The instances of this have been unenumerable)

Hopefully if they do attack Cuba, it will play a little differently with one huge quagmire (or loss, depending on perspective) already on the table.

[rayiner]

> Venezuela was literally the only thing Trump has done that made me sick with a feeling of "this is going to be well received by most people".

You didn't think Trump's border policy was going to be well received? That seems... out of touch give how prominent an issue it was in the election.

People remain quite positive on Trump's immigration policy; with Iran and inflation being his big weak spots: https://harvardharrispoll.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/04/HHP... (pp. 25, 26).

I don’t know how invading Cuba would be received. I feel like the biggest source of consternation about Iran is the effect on gas prices. That’s not at issue in Cuba.

[mindslight]

It might not run afoul of yours, but I assume that deploying domestic terrorists to attack American cities impinges upon most people's sense of morality in a way that attacking foreign countries (unfortunately) does not. This puts it in the second category I mentioned.

[rayiner]

I was actually surprised about that in the other direction. Police consistently poll in the top 3 most trusted organizations in the country. I would have thought ICE would get the benefit of that sentiment. But in the Harvard-Harris polling above, police are +39 net favorability, while ICE is -6.

The lower polling on ICE is odd because, as a policy issue, deporting all illegal immigrants (not just ones who have committed crimes) is polling at 55-45. What other way do people think there is to deport 20+ million people?

[pstuart]

Immigrants pulling up the ladder after themselves is a time-honored American tradition.

It's a complicated subject and has been weaponized by the Right, artfully so.

If you actually cared about the law being followed you would be consistent in that -- meaning that the immigrants who were/are here who have been completely legal in that should have been protected by the law, but weren't.

Likewise, you'd care that officers of the law themselves followed the law, and the courts have found egregious cases of that not happening.

And if it was about being fair in allowing immigrants in (specifically from south of the border, versus, say, whites from South Africa), the subject of fairness would have to examine the actions of the United States amongst it's southern neighbors and what impact it's had to cause those people to flee. AKA, "you break it, you bought it".

Now I'm not arguing for wide open gates either, but we had a system in place and the biggest problems with it were that it was poorly funded and staffed. After all, if you want them to be legal about it, there needs to be legal people to make that happen.

> Police consistently poll in the top 3 most trusted organizations in the country

And what about the demographics of such a poll? I recognize the need for some sort of law enforcement but if you had a family member having a mental health crisis would you call the cops? Do you think that the police are properly held accountable for their actions?

Man, the Federalist Society sure is good at their job.

[1659447091]

> The lower polling on ICE is odd because, as a policy issue, deporting all illegal immigrants (not just ones who have committed crimes) is polling at 55-45

Deporting illegal immigrants is not the issue with ICE. The issue with ICE is their killing of US Citizens, trying to cover it up until video evidence show they are absolutely lying trigger happy murders only to have the admin shrug and/or defend the agents actions and blaming the victims; also detaining and deporting US Citizens[0] doesn't sit well with other US Citizens.

[0] https://www.texastribune.org/2026/04/23/texas-united-states-...

[mindslight]

For starters they mainly don't. The whole reason TV personality leadership is en vogue is because most people don't actually think through the implications of what they're buying into. I sure wish they did!

But also, it's quite straightforward to envision a different ICE carrying out its goal slower, more deliberately, with transparency and legal accountability. There's zero need for them to operate as a masked terror squad that is above the law. For example Renee Good's executioner could be behind bars where criminals belong, while his former coworkers who didn't set up a pretext to execute a woman continue on with their job of deporting illegal immigrants. These things are not inherently in conflict.

(Yes, I am aware the rot in the organization has been brewing well before Trump. But terrible needlessly divisive leadership that aims to maximize cruelty (ie spectacle) has accelerated it, and has made it seem like these things are in conflict)

[pstuart]

After the killings in Minnesota I tried reaching out to a MAGA acquaintance I've tried to engage with to find any sort of common ground (so far without any success). I was ignored, and I'm assuming that he's been taught that those were domestic terrorists and got what they deserved.